First Preseason Game Tonight

I'll be there with Doug, and hopefully I'll be able to moblog a bit on my trusty Treo 650. Here's some preview quotes about the Sharks I've cobbled together:

EJ Hradek (ESPN) :

The Sharks' summer is better characterized by what they didn't do than what they actually did. Yeah, the club did add Mark Bell (I'll get to his recent problems later), Mike Grier and Curtis Brown, a trio of helpful forwards. But GM Doug Wilson wasn't able to move one of his goaltenders. At the draft, Wilson talked with several clubs, particularly in the Eastern Conference, but he couldn't strike a deal. So, unless something changes in the coming days, the Sharks will open camp with both Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskala.
Earlier in the summer, Toskala expressed hope that a deal would be made before camp. He said that if both goalies remained on the roster when training camp rolled around, it wouldn't be a good situation for either goaltender or the team.
For his part, Wilson is working to do what is absolutely best for the team. He doesn't want to give either goalie away and he doesn't seem interested in sending either stopper to another Western team. In the fall of 2003, the Sharks traded Miikka Kiprusoff to the conference rival Flames for a second-round draft pick. The rest, as they say, is history. Wilson doesn't want to take a chance that history could repeat itself. Late last season, after signing a four-year contract extension worth $21.5 million, Nabokov lost his starting job to Toskala, who started all of the club's 11 playoff games. Toskala, 28, is two years younger than Nabokov and a lot more economical after agreeing to a two-year deal that pays him $1.375 million per season. For those reasons, he's easier to trade. Of course, the Sharks might prefer to keep him and move Nabokov. Statistically, Toskala was better than Nabokov in most categories. Toskala was 23-7-4 with a 2.56 goals-against average and .901 save percentage, while Nabokov compiled a mediocre 16-19-7 mark with a 3.10 GAA and a subpar .885 save percentage. At some point, Wilson would like to move one of his goalies, but he won't do so until he finds the best possible deal for his team. That probably means Nabokov and Toskala will share the net well into the first half of the season.
Currently, Wilson could have another problem on his hands. On Monday, Bell was arrested on suspicion of drunk driving and a felony hit-and-run in San Jose. He was released on bond later that day. It's unclear what legal ramifications will come from this incident. It will, however, be a distraction for Bell, who signed a three-year deal (worth $6.5 million) with the Sharks after being acquired from the Blackhawks in a three-way deal. Coach Ron Wilson would like to see if Bell could play left wing on the club's top line with Hart Trophy-winning center Joe Thornton and Maurice Richard Award-winning right wing Jonathan Cheechoo. Some scouts believe Bell is better suited to be a third-line center instead of a first-line winger. It shouldn't take Wilson too long to figure out where he fits. Over the years, the Sharks have done an excellent job of developing their young talent. I expect they'll again be a tough opponent in the West. But until they find the right deal to move one of their goalies, they'll be somewhat distracted by their overcrowded crease.

Scott Burnside (ESPN):

The theory is that you have to fall down before you can climb the mountain, or something like that. If that's true, the San Jose Sharks might be poised to bring the Cup back to the Western Conference after a three-season absence (four if you count the lockout). The Sharks lost in the 2004 Western Conference finals and then dropped a heartbreaking second-round series last spring to
upstart Edmonton. The troubling part for the Sharks is that they blew a 2-0 series lead against the Oilers in doing so. They also led late in Game 3 before dropping what turned out to be the series-changing contest in triple overtime, all of which goes to the question of the Sharks' killer instinct and whether they have enough of it. Curiously, that's the same question being asked of defending MVP and scoring champion Joe Thornton since his arrival in the league. Still, few teams are deeper down the middle than the Sharks with Thornton and Patrick Marleau, and there's also the defending goal-scoring champion, Jonathan Cheechoo, one of the league's great feel-good stories of last season. Terrific two-way player Mike Grier arrives after being a major part of the Buffalo Sabres' run to the Eastern Conference finals. Mark Bell
will help with the offensive depth, although he faces criminal charges after an alcohol-related accident in San Jose in recent days. There are legitimate questions about depth along the blue line as Brad Stuart went in the Thornton deal and the surprising Tom Preissing left in the Bell deal. As a result, expectations are high, perhaps too high, for rookie defenseman Matt Carle. In goal, GM Doug Wilson must reconcile the very real possibility he will have a $5 million backup in the form of former rookie of the year Evgeni
Nabokov. And that's never a good thing.

Final thought: youtube video of a Christian Ehrhoff goal in practice:

Can't wait for the game!

Goodbye Drew Remenda, hello...

Marty McSorley. Third most penalized player in NHL history. He did studio work for Fox Sports Net West in LA last year, commenting on Ducks and Kings games. I mostly remember him as a King (he was Wayne Gretzkey's protection when the Great One was there), and for the slashing incident with Donald Brashear. The two heavyweights had exchanged words and fists earlier in the game. Late in the third period, and from behind, McSorley hit Brashear on the side of the head with his stick. It wasn't a huge two-handed baseball swing, but it was enough to give Brashear a major concussion. Marty was suspended for a year, and never played in the NHL again.

I know I have gushed over youtube.com before, but I just can't get enough of it. I also found this old fight between them, when McSorley was a Shark.

Anyway, I hope Marty will bring some of the same type of commentary that Drew did. The TV announcers (Randy Hahn is the play-by-play guy) are paid by the Sharks. But despite that, Drew and Randy still took the Sharks to task on many occasions when they played poorly. They both would point out bad calls by the refs, even when the Sharks benefited. Of course they were happy when the Sharks won, and sad when they lost, but they called the game in a balanced way. Nothing is more annoying than big-time "homers" on the radio or TV. I did not see any of McSorley's analyst work last year, but I hope he will bring his 17 years of NHL experience to bear in the booth, and help fans understand the best sport there is. That includes blasting the Sharks' power play when they're only converting 10% of the time.

We have our seats!

Doug and I went to our Select-A-Seat night last night at the Tank. We got dinner beforehand and talked strategy. There were certain sections that we were looking for, and price points we could afford. On the lower level, the seats on the sides of the rink (behind the benches and penalty boxes) were too expensive, so we were only prepared to take seats on the corners on the lower level. We agreed that we would rather sit upstairs than sit on the ends on the lower level. Your perspective of the far goal is just too poor, and lots of times you can't see play behind the closer net or in the corners.

As far as the upper deck goes, we could afford any seat except the very first row seats, which are quite expensive - more so than the corners downstairs. The first row is pretty sweet, unobstructed views (in the middle of the row), and you have a nice shelf to put your food and drinks. If we had to go upstairs, we would try to get as in the middle as possible on the side of the arena facing the benches.

We get there a few minutes early to sign in, then went downstairs with the rest of the group to the club for the "orientation". There were at least 50 or 60 people in our group, which was the first group of new season ticket holders. All the seats that were available had a colored piece of paper taped to it, with the color indicating the price. You couldn't reserve seats and then look for better ones- you sat in the seats you wanted and raised your hand, and a Sharks employee would write down what you wanted, and took the tags off of the seats. No changing your mind once you did that. The only odd rule was that you couldn't take a group of seats that would leave a single. So for us, we couldn't break up a group of 3 seats, or sit in the middle of a group of 4. Once they said go, we all piled out as fast as we could. Doug and I had a lot more urgency than most of the people- we were running around trying to find a good spot without falling down the stairs.

The biggest surprise was the number of lower bowl seats available. Quickly we noticed that the end of the arena that the Sharks attack twice was quite empty, but the other end (the Sharks' head end) had lots of green tags. We hustled over to the corner where the head was, and immediately sat down in a couple of seats in row 12. We were stoked! However, after looking at the sight lines a bit, we realized the protective netting pretty much covered our whole view of both offensive zones. Plus, the seats were so low were were not going to get a good view of one of the corners, or behind the net.

So we spotted a couple of seats on the aisle a few rows back, and sat down. These seats were even better. We had a more overhead view of the close zone, and the netting didn't obstruct the far zone. We spotted some row 2 and 3 seats in the upper bowl, so I ran up there to check them out real quick while Doug sat in our new choices. It turns out that even in rows 2 and 3, the railing that keeps people from going over the side really blocks a lot of action. You'd have to go up at least 7 or 8 rows to get an unobstructed view.

So we were sold! Section 124, row 20 on the aisle closest to the middle of the rink. Only 56 days until the first exhibition game. We can't wait.

Depth Chart

In honor of our Select-A-Seat day this week, and given a recent IM conversation I had with Doug, I think I will write a post talking about the Sharks' current depth chart:

1st line : Bell, Thornton, Cheechoo.
2nd line : Bernier, Marleau, Michalek
3rd line : Grier, Smith, Nieminen
4th line : Goc, Rissmiller, Brown

#1 D : McLaren, Carle
#2 D: Hannan, Gorges/Ehrhoff
#3 D: Ehrhoff/Gorges, Davison/Murray

I like the current state of the forward lines... there's a good combination of grit and skill. The 3rd line could be called the "energy line" or the "checking line" or whatever, but there's really more skill than that. It's not Georges Laraque and Tie Domi- guys with basically no real puck skill. I was repeatedly surprised in particular by Ville Niemenen's hands and skating ability last season. And I've been watching Mike Grier since he starred at Boston University in 1995. He's not quite clever or fast enough to be a scoring star, but he has been lauded for his smarts and leadership ability.

The Sharks' defense is a horse of a different color. I'm convinced Carle will be an All-Star in 2 or 3 years, but I think it's too much to ask for him to be a top-4 defenseman now. He might just jump right in like Dion Phaneuf, but Phaneuf is clearly the exception and not the rule. I have serious reservations about both Josh Gorges and Rob Davison even as regular NHLers. Doug Murray can hit like a truck, but he skates like a truck too. The inexperience, and lets face it, lack of talent will hurt the Sharks this season. If the Sharks manage to trade for or sign a solid top-4 stay-at-home defensemen, the blue line corps will turn from one that has holes to one that has opportunities. No longer will Gorges, Ehrhoff, and Carle be forced to regularly take on the opposing top line and kill penalities, but can be worked into that role slowly, and will have an actual chance to win the job, instead of it being forced upon them.

Who will say and who will go??

Nabby. Toskala. One will be here when the season starts and one will be polishing his mask for another NHL team in October. Who would you keep? What deals are out there? Here's my take.

ST. LOUIS BLUES
They have gone for a major make-over in order to hope the city and its fans can forget the embarrassment of a team they fielded last year. The Blues have gotten active in the FA market signing Guerin, McKee, Hinote and others gives the impression that they want to be competitive again soon instead of rebuild with kids. Their two current options in net are not going to cut it - and Manny Legace is certainly not going to take them into the playoff hunt.

Are they willing to offer one of their top defensemen (Salvador, Brewer or Jackman) and a high draft pick for Toskala? Would they consider a defensemen and the high salary of Tkchuck for Nabokov and Nils Ekman? I would make both these deals and I'm sure Wilson is exploring this as an option.

DETROIT
I know this notion makes Mike feel sick to his stomach and I know Wilson will not give one our boys to them for free. Hold the Wings hostage - they want to rebuild with youth and shed some veterans? How about Toskala and a young d-man we don't need like Jim Fahy or Davison for Schneider? We get a top two defensemen and a power play master.

FLORIDA
They will be looking for a goalie when they get sick of watching Adrian Auld. Not ready to pull the trigger and I'm not sure they have much beyond Bowmeester that we would want.

I trust Doug Wilson. He has made some brilliant deals - stealing Ekman from the Rangers for nothing and raping the Bruins for Big Joe. He has made some duds (Brad Boyes for Curtis Brown and the big stinker Kipper to the Flames). But....I trust him still. He will make the right move. So read this blog Dougie boy, take off your helmet and pull the trigger. Get us the Top 4 Defensemen we need to put us over the hump and lets bring the Cup to Silicon Valley.

GO SHARKS!

The new era of Mark Bell

The Sharks were involved in a three-team deal with the Chicago Blackhawks and the Ottawa Senators. The Sharks sent Tom Preissing and prospect Josh Hennessy to the Chicago for Mark Bell. The Hawks then sent Preissing, Hennessy, Michel Harinka, and a 2nd round pick to the Senators for Martin Havlat and Bryan Smolinski.

At first, it seems like the Sharks gave up a lot. Preissing had a breakout season with the Sharks, and solidified his position on the power play, and as a top-4 defenseman. I can't comment intelligently on Hennessy at all, but he did average over 1 point per game in the AHL last year.

Mark Bell is a big strong forward who has good hands around the net and can score. He also has averaged over 100 PIMs per year throughout his career, so you know he uses his size. He only scored 5 more points last year than Preissing, but keep in mind two things- he played for the 2nd worst offensive team in hockey (only St. Louis scored fewer) and Preissing got a lot of power play time with Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo, who were point scoring machines on the PP.

Chicago has agreed to terms with Havlat for 3 years and $18M. Smolinski is 34, and can give veteran leadership. It bums me out a bit that we didn't get Havlat, but given how much more Chicago gave up, we probably would have had to ship another one of our good young players as well as Preissing, which Doug Wilson probably didn't want to do.

I haven't seen enough of Mark Bell to really get a bead on how good he can be with the Sharks, but I'm going to try and keep an open mind. The Sharks have now given up two top-4 defensemen in the past year, and not signed any. It seems all the teams that went deep in the playoffs have at least one premier blueliner, and the Sharks are decidedly thin in that department.

Open the floodgate

The free agency period has started, and there have been almost too many moves to count. It seems every team has made a major trade, or signed a major free agent. I might post some more general thoughts later, but for now, I'm going to discuss the changes in the Pacific division in detail. There are just too many moves to really do a league-wide analysis justice while keeping it under 5000 words.

I did my best to get the gained/lost lists right, but I gleaned them by hand from the ESPN NHL transaction list. I can't use the team transaction pages because it doesn't have the players lost.

Anaheim Ducks - Upgrade
Lost: Joffrey Lupol, Ladislav Smid, Jeff Friesen, Ruslan Salei, draft picks
Gained: Chris Pronger
Seems like the Ducks lost a lot, but they gained more. Lupol and Salei were good players, but nowhere on the same level as Pronger. No doubt they got better. Their power play, with Niedermayer and Pronger on the point, will be fearsome to behold.

Dallas Stars - Downgrade
Lost: Jason Arnott, Bill Guerin, Willie Mitchell, Johan Hedberg, Niko Kapanen, 7th rounder
Gained: Darryl Sydor, Patrick Stefan, Jaroslav Modry, Jeff Halpern, Matthew Barnaby
Losing Arnott and Guerin hurts the Stars. They gained two good but not great defensemen in Sydor (who played in Dallas from 1996 through 2003) and Modry. Patrick Stefan may in fact be the worst #1 pick in the last 20 years. Maybe Alexander Daigle was worse, depends if you ask an Ottawa fan. I personally thought Willie Mitchell was one of the best trade deadline pickups of last season, and they let him go for nothing. Dallas will certainly not win the division next season.

Los Angeles Kings - Downgrade
Lost: Pavol Demitra, Jeremy Roenick, Joe Corvo, Mark Parrish
Gained: Brian Willsie, Alyn McAuley, Scott Thornton, Rob Blake, Patrick O'Sullivan
I only rate the Kings as a slight downgrade. They traded Demitra on draft day for O'Sullivan and draft picks (they got Jonathan Bernier with their first round pick, no relation to Steve). Blake will help on the power play, but he's 36- there's no way to predict how many games he'll play. Demitra was rickety too, so it's hard to say how many games were lost by trading him. Corvo and Parrish were pretty big hits, especially since Parrish went to a Western team. Roenick is barely a role player at this point.

Phoenix Coyotes - Upgrade
Lost: Paul Mara, picks
Gained: Ed Jovonovski, Jeremy Roenick, Mike Morrison, Nick Boynton, picks
The Boynton-for-Mara deal was another dumb trade for the Bruins. Mara has slightly more offensive upside, but Boynton is bigger, stronger, and a solid defensive plus player. Jovanovski was one of the biggest free agent signings so far. Roenick was probably a PR move more than anything else, but could end up being a nice surprise in the scoring department. The Coyotes will be much tougher on D this year, and could be a playoff threat.

San Jose Sharks - Push
Lost: Alyn McAuley, Scott Thornton
Gained: Mike Grier, Curtis Brown
The Havlat-Toskala deal died when the Senators managed to sign Martin Gerber from the Hurricanes, so the Sharks end up essentially standing pat for another offseason. We were in the Pronger sweepstakes apparently, but the Oilers didn't need a goalie since they re-signed Roloson. They wanted "three young players" which probably meant Bernier, Ehrhoff, Michalek, or Carle. I think the Sharks were wise in not giving them up. Right now our trade bait is Nabokov or Toskala- we shouldn't ditch the young core of the team. Signing Mike Grier was a good move, for essentially the same salary amount we gained by releasing Thornton. But the Sharks still need a decent left wing.

I'm not excited about facing Phoenix or Anaheim 8 times next season with the moves they made. But it ain't over yet. There are some free agents still out there that I think can add value for us.

Havlat rumors continue

So the current rumor is that the Sharks are willing to trade Vesa Toskala to the Senators for Martin Havlat, but there's a hangup. Havlat only has one year left on his contract, and the Sharks want him signed to 3 more years if they make the trade. I'm not sure which party is holding things up, whether Havlat wants to test free agency in a year, or other terms of the deal are contentious, but I don't have a good feeling about this. I think if this deal was going to go through, it would have happened by now.

In other news, our Save-a-Seat day at the Tank will be in about a month. Doug and I will have to get together and talk strategy- which sections we want, what price ranges, all that crap. It's a very exact science.

Draft day activity

I actually watched some of the NHL draft. I guess I am now officially hardcore. I mostly watched because the rumors are that the Sharks are going to trade either Toskala or Nabokov, and a lot of deals go down on draft day for picks. The Sharks made a minor deal, trading their first and second round picks to Montreal for their first round, so they could draft Ty Wishart, a defensemen. There were two big trades so far- Alex Tanguay was traded to the Flames for Jordan Leopold and a 2nd round pick on Friday. On draft day, the Wild traded a prospect and a 1st round pick for Pavol Demitra.

It's fun to see what these trades say about the teams involved. In the first trade, Calgary is recognizing that they need offense, and are willing to give up D to get it. The Avs clearly aren't super confident that they are going to re-sign Rob Blake, so they wanted to shore up blueline help. The second trade says that the Wild are ready to spend cash to make a legitimate playoff run, and hope that Demitra will entice Marian Gaborik to stay. As for the Kings, they aren't expecting to contend for the division, and are rebuilding.

Lots of rumors floating around. Apparantly the Kings offered Alexander Frolov and Dustin Brown (Doug says Mattieu Garon too) for Nabokov. Two problems with that deal. The first big reason is I don't want to play against Nabokov 8 times a year. The second is that neither Frolov or Brown are really proven scorers. Frolov is a talented kid, would be great on the power play, but I'm not sure he could ever score 35 or 40. For a solid #1 goalie, you should be able to get that. Brown is so young, he's a wild card. He only had 28 points last year playing the whole season, and was a minus player. That's 4th line material.

Doug told me about two more rumors. The Lightning are offering Ruslan Fedotenko and Frederik Modin for Nabby. Same problem with that deal as the Kings deal- I don't think the players are good enough. They are both roughly 50 point scorers. I'd rather get a 70 or 80 point scorer for Nabby than two 3rd or 4th liners. The last is the Sens are offering Martin Havlat for Toskala. Now we're talking! Havlat is a great scorer, and had a great playoffs (6-5-11 in 9 games) after coming back from a shoulder injury last year. I would make that deal. Imagine Cheechoo, Thornton, and Havlat on a line! Or even Marleau with Havlat would be awesome.

MVP! MVP!

Joe was voted the league MVP by the Hockey Writers Association, otherwise known as the Hart Trophy. He also got the Art Ross trophy, for most points during the season, with 125. Jonathan Cheechoo won the Rocket Richard trophy (most goals). Only the 3rd, 4th, and 5th NHL trophies in the history of the Sharks franchise. Nabokov won the Calder (top rookie) in 2001, and Tony Granato won the Masterson (top comeback player) in 1997. The major trophies are the Hart, Norris, Selke (top defensive forward), Calder, Vezina (top goalie), and Adams (top coach). The Ross, Richard, and Jennings trophies are based on statistical results, so there's no voting. Everybody knows who is winning at any given time.

There are a bunch of what I would call "lesser" awards given too. The Lady Byng, Pearson (MVP voted by players), Masterson, and King Clancy (leadership) are among those. Actually, I don't know that the Lady Byng is even good- it's generally given out to a good to great offensive player with very few penalty minutes. In other words, it's the "wuss" award. Marleau coming in 3rd out of 3 is actually a good thing. I don't mean to sound like sour grapes, but do you know who's won 5 Lady Byng trophies? Wayne Gretzky. I've never heard Wayne as a winner of "4 Stanley Cups, 8 Hart trophies, and 5 Lady Byng trophies". In hockey, taking the fewest penalty minutes is not a good thing- it means you don't get nasty enough.

I'm actually pretty surprised that Thornton won. Jagr was leading the points race until very late in the season, and he nearly won the Richard until Cheechoo overcame him. Jagr was more or less written off as a spoiled superstar who lost the touch, and he came out roaring this year for the Blueshirts. Given the general east coast bias in hockey, and the fact that Jagr nearly won both the points and the goals race, I figured he'd win. But I think the Devils' destruction of the Rangers in the first round hurt his chances.

Joe definitely deserved it more. The Sharks were on a 10 game losing streak when we traded for him, and we played roughly .700 hockey the rest of the season. There's no doubt in my mind that if we didn't make that trade, we would not have made the playoffs, and possibly finished last in the division. Plus combine Joe's amazing hands and passing ability with Cheechoo's fantastic release and pinpoint accuracy, and you have one of the top lines in the NHL. He clearly made the players around him better.

One of my favorite things about hockey is they actually name stuff after people, and it has meaning. It's not the NHL championship trophy, it's the Stanley Cup. It's not the top defenseman trophy, it's the Norris. And while other sports have names for their awards, in the NHL those names are used primarily. In the hockey world, you don't say Chris Pronger won MVP and top D in 2000, you say he won the Hart and Norris trophies, and everyone knows what that means. It's just kinda cool. I wish the NHL kept the old division and conference names too, but I understand that can be pretty confusing. It makes sense that the Sharks are in the Pacific division in the Western conference, but it would be tougher to remember that the Blackhawks were in the Smythe division in the Campbell conference.

Not re-signing Scott Thornton is a big mistake

The AP just reported that the Sharks have declined the option to resign Scott Thornton for the 2006-2007 season for 1.7 million. Interesting quote in the article:

"It's not every player you do this for, but I have a lot of respect for him," Wilson said. "This gives him time to check out his options."

Thornton is 35. I hope the Sharks don't actually think that they are doing him a favor. I'm not saying that Thornton isn't a good player, or that his career is over. I found an unofficial list of NHL salaries for last season, and a did a quick search to see what other players are making between $1.6M and $1.8M last year. Thornton made $1.71M, and that was the size of his option. Here's the list:

• Sean Burke
• Mark Denis
• Manny Fernandez
• Brett Hull (since retired)
  
• Mike Johnson
• Filip Kuba
• Jamie Lagenbrunner
• Robin Regehr
• Dwayne Roloson
• Dick Tarnstrom
• Donald Brashear
• Mike Comrie
• Mathieu Dandenault
• Viktor Kozlov
• Paul Mara
• Jaroslav Modry
• Sean O'Donnell
• Cory Stillman
• Colin White

It's a long list, so there's lots of possible comparisons here. If I were starting a team, and I had to rank these players by who would help me the most, I think I would only take Thornton over Sean Burke, Viktor Kozlov, and Donald Brashear. So the idea that the Sharks didn't exercise his option for his own good is patently ridiculous. He will not get $1.7M someplace else.

All that being said, the Sharks should have picked up his option for two big reasons.

1. He's Joe Thornton's cousin. Hockey has more relatives in the sport than any other, and lots of times those family bonds are strong. I'm not sure how close Joe is with Scott, but I do know Joe was living in Scott's house after he was traded to San Jose. Look at Scott Neidermayer- he went to the Ducks so he could play with his brother. Cutting Scott lose can only hurt the relationship the Sharks have with Joe- it cannot help.

2. He's a great role player and a fan favorite. There should be no sacred cows, but a lot of fans were pissed when we let Mike Ricci go, me among them. The fans, after all, are the ones that (primarily) pay the salaries. Why not take the option, put him in training camp against the youngsters, and trade him to a team making a playoff run if it doesn't work out? The Sharks are nowhere close to the salary cap here, one that will be raised to $44M for 06-07.

There's only one (poorly disguised) reason why the Sharks let him go- because they didn't want to pay him. And now Doug Wilson has put even more pressure on himself to get some decent free agents. You can't raise ticket prices by 10%, get rid of popular players, and make no signings in the offseason. Not if you don't want to get drilled in the press.

Great Game 7, Great Series

Carolina managed to pull it out last night in a great Game 7, which capped off a great Stanley Cup Finals series. Certainly the best I've seen this millennium. The back and forth of the Devils-Ducks series was pretty fun, but that series had 4 (four!) shutouts. This series had two, but they were 4-0 and 5-0 beatdowns. The play of this year's finals versus 2003 is night and day. Lots of skating and passing, and high speed hits.

I read that game 3 in L.A., shown at 5pm, lost in the ratings to I Love Lucy reruns. Not good. Game 1 lost nationwide to college softball. I don't think that second stat is really a fair comparison, because the hockey game was on OLN, and softball was on ESPN. OLN isn't available in 20% of homes, and I think ESPN is close to 100%. But the I Love Lucy stat is pretty brutal, because that's in a market that has OLN and two NHL franchises.

I guess I could lament the loss of hockey from mainstream sports consciousness, but I'm not that concerned. I have season tickets and an internet connection. I can find just about as much hockey coverage as I want. As soon as they start streaming TV over the net, which OLN has done already, this will become a purely academic argument. Hockey isn't talked about enough on ESPN or in the sports pages? Boo hoo. Heck, my favorite sports to watch on TV are hockey and beach volleyball. And I love watching cricket too, although I don't understand about 50% of it. I guess I'm used to searching for good programming.

My wish came true

What a beatdown. The Oilers dropped 4 goals on Carolina, and didn't give up any in game 6. There were a few minutes at 3-0 where it looked like the Canes may fight back and make it a game, but the Oilers were just too tough. The Hurricanes were without Aaron Ward and Doug Weight, but Eric Cole managed to come back. I wouldn't say he was really effective however.

Game 7 is going to be interesting. In Raleigh, I expect the fans to be as crazy as the Edmonton fans in game 6. I'm still holding strong and picking Carolina, but I'm glad I don't have money on it.

Oilers are not done

So I was wrong. Wrong wrong wrong. Those damn Oilers have found a way to claw back into this series, winning in overtime in game 5. The game was pretty exciting, with 5 goals scored in the first period. Then it tightened up quite a bit, and went into OT deadlocked at 3. Then about three and a half minutes into OT, with Carolina on the power play, Cory Stillman tried to make a cross ice pass at his own blueline. His stick was partially hooked, which prevented Stillman from putting the mustard on the pass you would expect. Pasani intercepted the lame duck pass at the blueline, walked in alone, and beat Ward with a wrist shot over the glove.

Although I'm rooting for the Canes, I have to admire the Oilers' pluck. They came back from a 2-0 deficit against the Sharks, and with Game 6 in Canada, I have to think there's more than a decent chance it'll go back to Carolina for Game 7. In which case I'll be in hog heaven. There's nothing better than NHL Game 7s. Except for Game 7s in overtime. So I'm sort of half-rooting for the Oilers at home on Saturday. If they win, I'll have a dilemma- watch game seven on Monday or go to the "State of the Sharks" event at the Tank? I think I'd rather watch hockey than talk about it.

Oilers are done

I picked the outcomes of game 3 and 4 correctly so far, and let's see if I can keep the streak going. Carolina will win game 5 at home, and end the series. The Oilers are (were?) a good team at home, but so is Carolina. The Canes just move the puck too well, and while the Oilers' thunderous hits in Edmonton sure got the crowd going, it didn't help enough. Keep in mind that Carolina was minutes away from OT in game 3, so I wouldn't say that physical play was the key. They just got a great goal late from Ryan Smyth.

Doug and I are going to the "State of the Sharks" presentation at the Tank next week. Maybe we can think of some questions to ask the Wilsons and Cheechoo. Of course we can't ask them specific questions about off-season moves and expect them to get answers. Questions like "Which free agents specifically are you looking at, and what would you give up to get them?". I'm hoping to get an idea of what kind of players the Sharks are looking for. Are we going to try and get a replacement for Ekman, who was pretty silent in the playoffs? What about a veteran D to help the youngsters? I would anticipate some questions about the "impending" goalie controversy, but frankly, I don't care that much about it. Nabokov is still great, Toskala is great, and Nolan Schaefer is very good. Regardless of the combination the Sharks field next season, I think it'll be fine. Personally, I would rather play Nabokov a bit before we trade him, because I'm confident his stock will rise once GMs see that he hasn't lost it.

I found this unofficial list of free agents, and I'm drooling over some of the names there. Jovanovski, Kubina, Redden or McKee would be nice defensive pickups. On the offensive side, I'm looking at Doug Weight, Marc Savard, Sergei Samsonov, Patrick Elias, and Jason Arnott would be cool, though Dallas would never let us sign him. And don't forget Owen Nolan! If the Sharks can get him for a song, I say take him- he's a fan favorite.

A game into the finals

So I've been AWOL, and Doug hasn't been any better. The Sharks lose, the Oilers win, and the world goes topsy-turvy. I was on vacation for the middle of May, so I was spared the despair of watching the Sharks lose four straight. And then I managed to watch a bit of an exciting Eastern finals, and none of a boring Western one.

So now we're here. Carolina vs. Edmonton. Before game 1, my feelings were mixed. I figured the Canes were a better team, but I might root a bit for the Oilers. Mainly because they beat the Sharks, and I just don't like the idea of the Cup in a southern state. When the Canes are bad, no one comes to the games, just like Tampa. But Edmonton sells out every game, good, bad, or indifferent. I like to see Canadian teams win. But after watching a bit of game one, I couldn't do it. I hate Chris Pronger (so much I'd like to see him play for the Sharks) and I hate Roloson even more. That dude is a major flopper. That's one of my pet peeves in the NHL. The goalie goes behind the net or out of the crease for some reason, and if a person even touches them they fall down like they've been shot and run over by a bus at the same time. Roloson pulled this crap and got the call. But there's a hundred guys trying to jockey for position in the crease and he stays upright, as solid as a rock.

So I start rooting for the Canes when they make it 3-1, and we watch the wheels completely fall off Edmonton. The Canes make it 3-3 very quickly, then it's 4-4, and then it happens. Roloson actually gets run into for real, because his defensemen pushes somebody into him. He goes down, and is replaced by Ty Conklin, a goalie so strong he not only lost the starting job this year, he lost the backup job for a while and was sent to the minors. There's about 5 minutes left in the game, and Doug turns to me and says "Conklin's gonna cough it up- Hurricanes win." And you know the rest. Conklin coughs it up behind the net, Brind'Amour has a wraparound with 31 seconds left, game over. Now we know that Roloson is out for the series.

I think the Canes will win now, more than ever. I'd be a complete moron if I thought different. But I do think the Oilers will make Carolina sweat a bit- they will win at least one game in Canada. But the Canes are winning again tonight.

A week into the playoffs (almost)

We are now 6 days into the playoffs, and all of the series have played three games so far. I've only had the opportunity to see a few of them, though I've watched a lot of games. After the disconcerting 4-0 loss in Game 1, the Sharks seemed to have regained their offensive form, winning games 2 and 3 in pretty decisive fashion. Game 4 tonight in SJ is absolutely key. If the Sharks lose game 4, then game 5 is in Nashville, and we could be looking at game 6 down 3-2. We'll be in the driver's seat if we win tonight.

As for the other series, I sure know how to pick 'em. If the current leaders in all the series go on to win, I'll be 2-6. All three of my underdog picks are losing (the Sharks don't count as an underdog), and there are two huge upsets in the works in Edmonton and Montreal. Carolina, while not playing well, managed to win last night, so they could pull it out. Same with Detroit, but the Oilers have a history of being giant killers.

New prediction- Joe Thornton will have 2 points or more tonight.

Eastern Match Ups

Like the West, I'm picking two lower seeds to advance in the Easter Conference first round. Here are my thoughts:

Buffalo vs. Philadelphia - For some reason, the Flyers find a way to win the first round, then lose later. I'm predicting that trend will continue. I must say that this is the series that I'm least informed about- I have only seen Philly play a few times this season, and maybe Buffalo never. It could be that bias that's causing me to pick against the Sabres- a team with balanced scoring but no stars. Afinogenov and Kotalik are good, but Forsberg and Gagne are better. If Forsberg gets hurt and misses a lot of time, I can see the Flyers losing this series. My prediction is that Forsberg stays intact for this round, and the Flyers advance.

New Jersey vs. New York (Rangers) - New York went on a horrible slide to end the season, and the Devils did just the opposite, winning 11 in a row. Martin Brodeur, as always, is the key to the Devils' success. The Devils still play their brand of shutdown hockey, but their D isn't as strong as past years, with Niedermayer and Stevens gone. I think the Rangers' O will overcome the Devils' D, with Jagr, Prucha, and Nylander all scoring. The Devils will need random goals from random players. Brian Gionta has 48 this year (where did he come from??), but after Scott Gomez, the scoring gets pretty scarce. No other Devil has over 20. When it comes down to it, I think the Rangers will have a better shot of shutting down Gionta than the Devils have of shutting down Jagr. This is a HUGE underdog pick, I think the Devils are -240 in Vegas.

Carolina vs. Montreal - Everyone is talking about the loss of Eric Cole, and it does hurt Carolina, but not as much as everyone thinks. I think Montreal may be able to steal a game or maybe two, but the 'Canes are too strong. They have four good centers in Brind'Amour, Staal, Recchi and Weight (Weight is playing the wing now), and plenty of D. Add to that a breakout year in goal for Martin Gerber and the best faceoff man in hockey (Brind'Amour), and you've got a team that is in a position to win the Cup. Les Habitants are similar in makeup to Carolina, but just not as good. Cristobal Huet has really come on late in the season, but neither him nor David Aebischer are playoff tested. I just don't think the Canadians can keep up.

Ottawa vs. Tampa Bay - Scott Burnside in ESPN has picked the Lightning to upset the Sens, but I don't think he could be more wrong. Ottawa has had a terrible reputation for coming into the playoffs as a high seed, and folding in the first round. Everyone in town will be intent on not taking the 1-8 matchup lightly. The Senators will come out fast and hard, and Tampa Bay, while having one of the better defensive corps in the East, do not have the goaltending. They hoped that John Grahame would be the obvious #1, but they've ended up platooning him with Sean Burke. I see some big games in this series from the top line. Even if Kubina and Sydor can shut down the best line in hockey (Alfredsson, Heatley, and Spezza), Ottawa can hurt you with Havlat, Smolinski, and Schaefer. If Hasek doesn't make it back, I can see the Senators being vulnerable in later rounds, but not in the first round.

Can't wait for the first games tonight!

Matchups are Set In the West

Actually, the matchups are set in both conferences, but I'm only going over the West today. I might be doing a little devil's advocate work here, and pick some underdogs. Unlike ESPN, which makes for some pretty boring articles. Ok, they picked the Sharks, but as I talked about before, that's hardly going out on a limb.

Nashville vs. San Jose - as a Sharks fan it's tough to accurately handicap this series, so I have to go with the Sharks. They have the two hottest players in the league, against a disciplined team with a scrub goalie and several injuries. And their offense isn't that great either. Pop quiz- who has more points- Patrick Marleau or Paul Kariya? Hint: it's not Kariya. The bad news for the Preds is that Marleau isn't even on the top line. Don't get me wrong, the Preds will be a pain in the ass to play against, with Brendan Witt, Kimmo Timmonen and co. on the blue line. But I think our relatively inexperienced blue line coupled with the best goaltending duo in the NHL will be able to solve their offense. And no one in the league right now can stop Thornton and Cheechoo.

Calgary vs. Anaheim - This entire series hinges on one player - Mikka Kiprusoff. If the Kipper can look like he did in the 2003-2004 playoffs (and the regular season this year), the Flames will win. If he stumbles just a bit, the Ducks will steal some games, and the series will be on. My guess is that the complete lack of Calgary scoring will bite them bad, and the Ducks will be able to squeak at least one game out of the first two in Calgary. Anaheim is also a very good team at home, and I could see the series going back to Calgary for game 6 with the Ducks up 3-1. The Ducks' top line of Selanne, McDonald and Kunitz is very good, and it's not all Selanne. Another pop quiz: who has more goals- Andy McDonald or Marleau? Ok, that's cheap - they're tied with 34. I'm going with my gut on this one and picking the Ducks. It won't be a cakewalk by any means; it's going to go at least 6 games, and if the Ducks win, they'll be very beat-up for the conference semis. But I'm still going to be a man and pick Anaheim.

Dallas vs. Colorado - As much as I want to pick Colorado, I can't. The loss of Forsberg, the lack of consistent scoring from Tanguay and Hejduk, and a defensive corps of castoffs like Bob Bougner and Patrice Brisebois adds up to too many mistakes against a solid Stars team. Jason Arnott has been a force, Mike Modano, while rickety, still has some of the best moves in the NHL, and Sergei Zubov has got to be a Norris finalist. If Colorado gets another Conn Smythe performance out of Jose Theodore they might have a shot, but that's a big if considering Theodore hasn't had any quality minutes in months. I doubt this series will even go 6.

Detroit vs. Edmonton - You can say what you want about Manny Legace playoff experience, but the whole Jussi Markkanen-Dwayne Roloson goalie tandem isn't exactly taking the league by storm. Detroit's special teams play just too good, and they don't have any holes other than general age. Without any explosive stars on the Oilers, they don't have much of a chance. This could easily be a sweep.

Feel free to blast me in the comments section, and I'll be back later this week to go over the Eastern Conference.

Mea Culpa

I'm a lazy ass. Suffering a little blog burnout here. Doug especially has been really busy. Ok, done with excuses. Now it's time to talk about how bad I screwed up. In the last post, I basically said that the Sharks were done, and would need to go on a crazy tear to make it. I was right about the latter, but wrong about the former. The Sharks have gone 12-3-2 since then, for 26 out of a possible 34 points. They now have 97 points, and are guaranteed at least the 7th spot. They eliminated Vancouver last night, which was particularly sweet. Joe Thornton has had 7 points in the last two games, and is now tied with Jaromir Jagr for the NHL points lead.

What a run! If we win the next two games, we'll clinch the 5th seed, which means we get to play the Predators. Talk about Christmas coming early this year- their all-world goalie, Tomas Vokoun, went out last week with some weird blood disease, and won't be coming back this season. So the Preds will be playing Chris Mason, a 29-year-old journeyman with only 41 games of NHL experience. The old saw says that you win in the playoffs with hot goaltending (see JS Giguere in 2003) and I find it very difficult to believe that Mason will pull it together. The difference between playing Nashville and Calgary will be night and day. Kiprusoff is a Hart and Vezina candidate this year; the Flames could ride him all the way, the way they almost did in 2004. I think that could be a tougher matchup than even Detroit in the first round. If you make it past Detroit, which would be very difficult, you won't be nearly as banged up as making it past Calgary.

Doug and I got playoff tix, so look for a playoff preview once the seedings are set, and game analysis once the games start. I'm so excited! We're going to Fan Appreciation night on Monday too, so hopefully we'll win some free stuff.

3/4 pole

The season is 75% over, and the Sharks currently have 71 points, 5 out of a playoff spot. San Jose has won their last three games, and have three more home games to go before a 5 game road trip. Here's my current status report, done in the same style as my half-season report:

Offense: The Sharks have scored 197 goals, 9th in the West. Their top line still scores very consistently (Thornton is the NHL points leader right now, and Cheechoo had his 4th hat trick of the season on Monday night). The problem is, the second and third lines aren't scoring as much as I would hope. I predicted that Marleau would score more, and he has (29 goals, his career high). But the other young players that I thought would flourish against 2nd and 3rd line D have come up short. Michalek has only 13 goals. Goc has 15 points, and is -12. I think the top line has as much firepower as any other in the NHL, but if they hit a cold streak, I've seen zero evidence that other players will pick up the slack.

Defense: Still spotty. I expected the Sharks to be in the hunt for a veteran defenseman at the deadline, but no big moves happened. Hannan has gotten his +/- up to a -3, which is quite an accomplishment given where he was earlier in the year. Erhoff looks solid, Murray hits like a freight train, but the jury's out on Gorges and Davison. On Monday, the Sharks gave up a goal twice on the shift following a Sharks goal. Everyone knows that a successful shift after you score is critical to keep the momentum, and the Sharks couldn't keep it. On the positive side, the Sharks have looked horrible with 1-goal leads late in the game, and this time, they kept it without too much scrambling.

Special Teams: Both the PP and PK have improved since midseason- both are middle of the pack. I think I saw a stat a few weeks ago that said that the Sharks are over 20% on the PP since the Thornton trade. It's amazing watching the D clear out when Joe has the puck on the half boards- they know how dangerous his passing is. I which he would shoot a touch more from that spot though.

Goaltending: I was very surprised to see the Sharks re-sign both Toskala and Nabokov, and not trade either. That being said, Toskala has clearly been the better goalie since the halfway point. It's a good feeling knowing you have two quality goalies for the playoff run, but I wonder if there will be a controversy next season if Toskala continues to play well. Nabby had a great Olympics and will want to be the starter.

Looking Forward: The Sharks are picking up speed at the right time, but their margin for error is now very small. With LA, Vancouver, and Edmonton struggling, the Sharks must win every game against inferior opposition. The last two and a half weeks of the season are absolutely brutal- 10 games in 17 days in April. If I had to choose right now, I would say that the Sharks will not make the playoffs. But as a fan, I think of all the opportunities they have this month. if SJ can beat STL twice, and win the Chicago, Columbus, and Phoenix games, that will put us at 81 points with 10 games to go. If the Sharks can get 11 more points in April, I think they will make the playoffs. Only two of the games in April are against teams not in the top 8 (and one is against the Ducks, who are ahead of us), so that's actually a pretty tall order.

Trading Note: I'm glad Niko Dimitrakos is gone, and I don't really care that much about the Ville Niemonen pickup. While it would have been nice for Doug Wilson to get another D man, I'm glad he didn't trade away high draft picks or young players to get a 3-month rental. There's plenty of cap room, so I'm hoping for some free agent fireworks in the off season.

Stats

My friend Jeremy sent out an email recently where all NHL teams with PP% + PK% was over 100. His idea was that teams with PP+PK>100 will make the playoffs. Unfortunately, that list has a couple of weird teams in it. Minnesota is 106. Boston and Phoenix are over 99. And LA is third from the bottom, with 94.1. I tried to put the table in here, but I can't get blogger to put it in right. If I put in the html, it's looks like crap. I uploaded a gif of the table from Excel, but it shrinks it to nothing. If you want the data, email me.

This has all of those stats , plus a few more. The bottom line is how each column correlates to each of the states. 1 means a perfect correlation, 0 means no correlation. Wins has an almost perfect correlation to the number of points a teams has (duh!), and the number of games played has almost no correlation to the number of points (also duh). But lets look at the other stats. Wins and losses mean points, so seeing that those strongly correlate isn't really suprising or useful either. But let's look at PP%, PK%, and PP+PK. PP% correlates stronger than PK% to the number of points a team has, so that implies that it's better to have a good power play than a good kill. But PP+PK has a higher correlation still. Also, if you rank the teams by their PP and PK, and have a rank for the best PP+PK, that's an even better correlator than strictly PP%+PK% (but very close). Even though there are some outlier team in the PP+PK stat, it's still the best correlator to points.

The rightmost column is a little experiement of mine called Pythagorean Points. Rob Neyer and others have used the Pythagorean theorem for years to try and predict the number of wins and losses a baseball team has based on their run scored and runs allowed. This is a similar thing that I modified to try and apply it to hockey. Ties make it hard. I calculated the average number of points a teams scores in each game (1.11), then times that by two, then that by the pythangorean percentage. It's good to see which teams have been "lucky" this season. It stands to reason that if you score 200 goals and give up 200, your winning percentage should be about .500. If it's not, that means you've been somewhat lucky. Philly is a good example. Scored 213, given up 212, and are 35-20-10. Ottawa is somewhat unlucky. They've scored 252, only given up 152, and have 91 points. According to my results, on average a team with that GF/GA ration should have over 100 points already.

Anyway, something to think about and comment on.

New Look Sharks

5-2 win over the Oilers? Sharks pull away in the third period instead of collapse? Sharks played physical hockey and bullied the finesse style Oilers?

Sounds like a dream, right? No Sharks fans - the boys had a new look tonight and it paid off as we pulled back to six points out of the final playoff spot. The Sharks sent out a physical line up with the return of Scott Parker, rookie Steve Bernier and new Finnish bruiser Ville Nimenen. Doug Wilson managed to get a third round draft pick for Dimitrakos - which means he basically swapped Niko for Nimenen, a deal I'd make any day in my sleep. Niko hadn't scored a goal since December 2nd - yes, that's right, December 2nd!! Mark Smith was the roster spot casualty tonight - the only notable healthy scratch. He could return if McCauley and Goc continue to sputter - although they had some jump playing along side Mr. Parker.

It was nice to see Doug Wilson not push the panic button and over pay for some mediocre deadline rental like Recchi or Mark Parrish. The Oilers gave up too much for Samsanov and Roloson laid a major egg in his first start for Edmonton. They gave up a first round pick for a guy who was 6-17-1 this year? Looks like Edmonton might have screwed the pooch here...

Nashville in town on Saturday. Huge game for the Sharkies. We have a huge homestand and if the boys can take four out of five - we'll be right back in this thing. Can they play like they did tonight? I think so.

Olympic "Sports"

There are two Olympic sports I actually get excited about- biathalon and curling. I watched a 12.5km biathalon, and it was very exciting; I'm not kidding. The lead changed hands a bunch of times because if you miss shots you have to ski around a little penalty oval, which allows other people to catch you. If you choke and miss a bunch of shots, you're pretty screwed. This particular race had a veteran from Norway take the lead after the last shooting stage despite starting 14th. A much younger guy from France caught him in the last 100m sprint. Great stuff.

And I like curling because it's completely unlike any other Olympic sport- it has a very physical component, but is much more about strategy. Plus it has a whole world of jargon that is completely impenetrable to the average viewer. I spent the first hour or two just trying to figure out what the hell the announcers are saying.

I was reading Tom Benjamin's blog, and he presented a definition of what a sport really is. I think it's a good question, because when you think about it, most Olympic "sports" aren't really sports.

My big thing is that a sport has to have an objective result. That is, using scientific or other measurement, the winner is determined. Tom calls it an "unambiguous result". That means all the judging events are not sports. Figure skating, gymnastics, snowboarding, ballroom dancing- not sports. I'm not saying they aren't worthwhile pursuits, or that they don't take an incredible amount of skill and ability. I'm saying that when the results of the competition are determined by a judge, it ain't a sport any more- it's a pageant.

A sport also has to have generally physically fit or strong participants. Bass fishing is out. Bowling and pool are out. Poker is out. I think curling is on the edge here. I'm not saying all the participants have to necessarily be fit (see David Wells), but being in shape has to be considered a distinct advantage. You can be a fat guy with a strong right arm and still bowl 300.

Finally, the participants should break a sweat during the course of the activity, and not due to the elements or stress. Not sweating because it's cold is the exception, so swimming, cross country skiing (although they sweat) and curling are in (barely). I think this means that auto racing is out, and maybe even golf.

I'm sure this will piss people off, because most of the sports that fail the first criterion are popular with women, but it is what it is. That's why they should encourage sports where being nimble and light is a benefit, like rock climbing.

Olympics are Over

I didn't post a single thing about Olympic hockey until now. Why? There's no nice way to say it, so I'll just come right out:

I don't care.

Yep. Call me a unpatriotic anti-hockey moron, but it's the truth. I watched precisely one game- the U.S. vs Slovakia, in which we lost 2-1. I don't really see the point in NHL players playing in the Olympics. They arrive the day before the hockey games start, and leave the day after they're done. They don't walk in the opening or closing ceremonies. The players are pretty much guns for hire. And not even all the best players come- see Scott Niedermayer et al.

The idea that NHL players will bring more fans to the NHL didn't work in 2002, and I'd be even more surprised if it worked this year, considering the Olympics got a ratings beatdown by both American Idol and Desperate Housewives.

And because they are guns for hire, the teams don't have any flow, any continuity of play. Certain players seem to click because they play with each other in the NHL, or on past Olympic or World Cup teams, but for the most part the play is disjointed and difficult to watch. Even after watching one period of the U.S. game, I was frustrated. You see great players like Mike Modano skating around in their own little hockey system, a different system than all the other players'. After seeing that, I still thought Canada would win gold, but I could see how they could be beaten- simply by playing a team that's all on the same page. And sure enough, they got shut out twice and didn't medal.

Bring back the true amateur players, and coach 'em up for a few months. Maybe they won't be the best players in the world, but at least they'll have a vague idea as to what the other guys on the ice are trying to do. Sure, I won't have heard of many of them, but how many non hockey fans could name more than 2 Olympians this year?

OLYMPIC MEDAL ROUND

Switzerland? Finland? Slovakia? Has the world gone crazy? What happened to the Olympic powers, you may ask? Don't worry...they're going to show up starting tomorrow. Here's a preview of the first round match-ups.

FINLAND vs. USA
Hmmm...I'm not sure what to make of this one. The way Finland has played stingy defense combined with the USA's tendency to not score goals could spell doom for an upset - but I guarantee that Team Stars and Stripes is happier to see Finland than Canada in this spot. Color me crazy - but I smell an upset. USA 4 FINLAND 3

SWEDEN vs. SWITZERLAND
Three words to discribe the Swiss run to Gold. IT IS OVER. This game isn't even worth breaking down. After two ties to Germany and Italy - Switzerland blew its load early. SWEDEN 5 SWITZERLAND 1

CANADA vs. RUSSIA
Oh man. I had picked this to be the Gold Medal game and in a way, I still think it's true. Whoever wins this game could march all the way to gold. All signs point to Russia winning a wild one here - Nabby has been hot, Brodeur is banged up, Canada has been pushed around and the power play has been mortal. But....I think Team Canada will finally become interested and will not allow themselves to go home early. They looked bored and now with Gold on the line - they show up.
CANADA 5 RUSSIA 3

SLOVKIA vs. CZECH REPUBLIC
Great match-up. Slovakia is another team that surprised many in running the table in Round One. Will Vokoun get a chance to redeem himself or will the Czechs make a big mistake and play the rookie. I think they play the rookie....and they lose.
SLOVIA 6 CZECH REP 3

That would mean USA vs. SWEDEN and SLOVAKIA vs. CANADA in the Semis...

OLYMPIC PREVIEW

The 2006 Olympics are here and the men's hockey is off and running. Easy wins this morning for Finland, Sweden and Canada. Italy put up a decent fight and played with lots of passion in front of the home crowd - but Canada's power play is going to be unbeatable in 2006. Canada can come at you with four amazing lines filled with size, speed and skill. Now that Hasek is down for team Czech, there's only two teams that can cut them down. Team Sweden and, I'm saying this now....beware of Team Russia. This team has the ability to skate in and stun the big boys. Nabby is well rested and is more than capable of going on a major run. Here's how I see the medal round playing out.

ROUND 1 - Canada over Kazakhstan. USA over Czechs (in an upset). Sweden over Germany. Russia over Finland.

ROUND 2 - Canada over USA (close one 7-5 Canada). Russia over Sweden.

GOLD MEDAL GAME - Canada vs. Russa. Canada wins 6-5.
Sweden takes the bronze.

You heard it here...from someone who has cash on Team Canada. They are just too good and too deep to lose.

Great Win

The Sharks had a strong first and blockbuster second periods tonight in beating Dallas 6-3. Cheechoo had two goals, and even more promising, the power play looked very good. They had a 5-3 power play that immediately preceded Joe Thornton's goal- he scored just a second or two after the 2 man advantage expired. And in other power plays, the puck movement was very good, shots came from the point through screens, and they cycled well.

The only down moments came in the 3rd when Dallas scored two goals in quick succession to make it 5-3 after the Sharks led 5-1 after two. I could sense the crowd reeling at the Tank, hoping the Sharks wouldn't find a way to lose or tie, the same way they've done too many times this season. But Toskala had a couple of strong saves right after the third Dallas goal, the defense started clamping down, and the offense was actually trying to manufacture chances, as opposed to waiting in the neutral zone, and dumping it in every time they got possession.

The Sharks have to be shopping Toskala at this point. He's played the last two games, despite Nabokov being re-signed to a 5 year deal. There's no doubt in my mind that management is playing Toskala so other teams can see what he can do. I think trading Toskala is a good idea at point, provided two things- 1) that we get real long term value in return and 2) he goes to a team in the East. The Kiprosoff deal is still hurting the Sharks, witness the Sharks loss to them on Monday when he made 28 saves.

1-0 picking underdogs

First, a photo I took at last nights game. I tried to post it from my Treo by attaching it to the email I sent in, but that didn't work. Oh well.

Second, my Columbus pick was so good (they won 7-4 last night) that I thought I might retire from picking more games, but it's too much fun. I think I will try to make it a little tougher on myself and pick mostly even games or underdogs.

Doug or I will post something on the breaking NHL gambling scandal soon... I need to do some more reading about it, and new information seems to come out every day.

That's the final

Despite the Sharks playing prevent defense the entire third period, they manage to win 2-1. The first 5 minutes were bad, and the next 15 were worse. Niko Dimitrakos managed to take a dumb penalty with about 5 minutes left. Once we killed the penalty (barely) Niko comes out of the box and prompty missed a lead pass that was right on his tape. We need to send him to Cleveland. I hope the Sharks can retool before Dallas comes to town o Friday.

2-1 After 2

Kyle Calder had a pretty nice goal from a bad angle to put Chicago back within 1. The Sharks still dictated play- they've outshot the Hawks 30 to 16. It's unnerving that SJ is only up by one considering the general beatdown.

End of the First

End of the first, the Sharks lead 2-0. Marleau had a beautiful goal. The uck squirted out to one side while there was a scrum in front. Marleau turned around, and literally with one foot on the goal line, roofed it. Only a few inches of space, and he hit it.

The other goal was a little Joe Thornton tip from a Preissing point shot. The Sharks were clearly much faster than the Hawks the whole period, it's easy to see why they suck so much.

I'm mobile!

I'm going to mobile blog from the Sharks game. Updates to follow...

My First Pick

I'm not going to make as many picks as Doug in this space, I'm more into stats and other analysis. But I'm going to show Doug up here today, and actually pick an underdog. It's all well and good to pick Dallas, Ottawa, and Carolina, but today I'm picking:

Columbus (+110)

Yeah! Read it and weep. The Kings are on a long road trip, lost to Minnesota last night, a bruising team. They had to travel late to Ohio, where the Jackets have had an extra day to prepare. Rick Nash is on an absolute tear right now, and L.A. is plagued with injuries. The Kings are 3-0 in their last three meetings, but at least if I'm wrong, I went out like a man.

Blackhawks are coming to town!!!

GAME PREVIEW
The Blackhawks stole a win in Phoenix last night 3-1. I hope Mrs. Gretzky didn't play the over! Bad news for the Sharks tonight is they like to play "win one lose win" with the boys from Chicago. This is bad news because the Sharks won the last one....so they are due to lose this one.

Great news that Cheechoo got locked into a 5 year contract extension last night. He has developed into one of the best finishers in the game and would have commanded big cash on the open market. Signing Nabokov is the more puzzling move - he has been wildly inconsistent and in and out of Ron Wilson's doghouse. I thought Nabby was more tradebait than cornerstone in Doug Wilson's eyes. I'm pleased with the signing and I hope it will allow Nabby to relax. Expect Doug Wilson to move Toskala to an Eastern Conference team in need of goaltending. I would be shocked if he moved Vesa to Vancouver, Edmonton or Colorado - he won't pull another deal that could burn him in the end, i.e. Kipper.

THE GAMBLER 5-0-0 $500.00
Ottawa at NY Rangers
Man..I'm a house of fire. This one was an easy pick for me, it jumped right off the board. Ottawa owns the Rangers and shows up in the Garden for a big bounce back win. I still think the Rangers are pretenders and prime for a collapse near the end of the season. The walls could start to crumble tonight.

PLAY: Ottawa -165

Sharks are done

As Doug mentioned, the Sharks lost again last night to Calgary in San Jose. The Sharks currently have 56 points, 8 out of the last playoff spot. The number 8 team, Colorado, has 64 points in 55 games, earning 1.163 points per game. At that pace, they'll have 95.418 points in 82 games, so let's say 95 points for the sake of argument.

95 points for the number 8 seed is a lot. Last year (meaning 2003-2004), the #8 seed in the west, Nashville, had 91 points. The year before that Edmonton had 92 points and squeaked in. But as I've mentioned in previous posts, the West has the two toughest divisions in hockey this year, and the 3 worst teams as well, so the disparity will be large. But 95 still sounds like a lot, so let's drop that down 2 to 93.

The Sharks have 29 games left, and would need to earn 37 points in those 29 games to hit 93 points. That's 18-11, or better than .620 hockey. That includes 4 games vs. Dallas, and 2 each against Detroit and Vancouver. Assuming they go .500 against the three best teams in the West - a pretty charitable assumption considering they are under .500 against their own division - that means they need to play almost .700 hockey against Phoenix (0-4 this season), Anaheim (3-3), and L.A (4-1), among all the other West teams.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying the Sharks are done. How are they going to pick it up, when all the other West teams are picking it up too, jockeying for position in the playoffs?

But I still bleed teal, so I'll be watching the games. I'm going this week against Chicago and Dallas.

Another disappointment

Too little too late for the Sharks last night as they fell at home to the Flames. The game wasn't as close as the 4-3 final score indicated. I don't even want to talk about it....let's move on to something better like...

THE GAMBLER 4-0-0 $400.00
Say what you want, but picking winners is picking winners. Too bad I don't have real money on these babies.

Edmonton at Colorado

What a great season series, with the Avs leading 3-2. The Avs love to open it up and the Oilers are like the "Diet Avalance" following the same mold of wide open skating, scoring and little defense and suspect goaltending. The Oilers are coming off a late night shootout win vs. the Ducks. Having to fly to Colorado and get it up for the Avs will be too much to ask.

PLAY: COLORADO -165

Interdivision games for the Sharks- not good

I mentioned recently that the Sharks have a ton of division games in late January and February, let's see how the Sharks are doing:

• 1/21 at Kings : Win (OT) 4-3
• 1/24 vs. Kings : Win 4-1
• 1/26 vs Ducks : Loss 0-2
• 1/28 at Coyotes : Loss 2-6
• 1/30 at Stars : Loss (OT) 2-3
• 2/1 at Ducks : Win 6-4
• 2/4 vs Ducks : Loss 0-2

So that's 7 points in 7 games, basically .500 hockey. We have two more division games before the Olympic break, versus Dallas and Phoenix, and even if we win both, we'll only have 11 points in 9 division games. Given that the entire Pacific division is 4 games over .500 or better, playing roughly even hockey is not the way to gain ground for a playoff run. The Kings are seriously fading, but the Ducks and Stars are both playing well right now, and Phoenix has been suprisingly resilient this season. The Sharks have clearly frittered away a golden opportunity to make up ground in the West.

Calgary comes to town

GAME PREVIEW
The Sharks face off in another important Western Conference game against the hated Calgary Flames, who crushed our Stanley Cup hopes and dreams in 2004. This Flames team is a little different, with some new faces that has messed with the chemistry that made them such a dangerous playoff team. There are some good things going for the Sharks. The Flames are riding a three game losing streak and have lost eight straight regular season games at the Tank. Let's hope the boys can dish out some punishment tonight.

THE GAMBLER 3-0-0 UP $300 SMACKERS
Nashville at Dallas
I'm on a roll baby. Let's not stop here. Speaking of rolls...The Dallas Stars were on a major one before the St. Louis Blues and their band of no names pulled their pants down. Dallas was clearly thinking about Nashville coming to town and let the aggressive young Blues team out work them. Dallas will pick up the pieces tonight at home vs. the Preds. Nashville hasn't won in Dallas since March 2003....and that won't change tonight.

PLAY: DALLAS STARS -165

Quick Pick for Sunday

THE GAMBLER 2-0-0
Thank you very much, I'm on a roll. Follow me on this next pick.

Carolina at Boston
Take the Hurricanes today to bounce back after a no win situation in New Jersey. This team has been waiting in Boston overnight after the Bruins had to fly home after losing in Montreal - so they essentially become the home team. Carolina is too good to blow this chance to take a game from Beantown.

PLAY: CAROLINA -160

Selanne Sucks

GAME PREVIEW
Sharks are in another must win situation tonight against Anahiem....let's face it, every division game is a must win at this point. Sharks must win and hope Vancouver can get pull one over on the Oilers so we have some hope going into the Olympic break.

Sharks must stop Selanne, who's decided he can skate and score again. Thanks for showing up when you were in Teal - LOSER! Doug Murray needs to put Selanne on his ass and the Sharks must keep him from getting odd man rushes.

The Marleau line must provide a goal. The Ducks are going to key on the Thornton line, leaving our fate in the hands of Patty M. I predict a goal from Mr. Marleau in a breakout game.

Sharks 4 Ducks 2

THE GAMBLER - Season Record 1-0-0
If you're a gambling man, look for the Devils to have a let down after a very emotional win last night vs. Carolina. The Leafs are desperate for a win and will catch the Devils at a weak moment. Toronto will jump up early and NJ won't be able to recover. I also think Brodeur won't be between the pipes. I'll take Tellqvist vs. Clemmenson is the battle of the back-ups.

Here's some stats for you.

Toronto is 2-0 vs. the Devils this season
Devils are 1-4 in their last five trips to Toronto
New Jersey is 2-7 on the second game of a back to back
New Jersey is 1-4 if their second game of a back to back is on the road after a home game.
Toronto is 5-1 in back to back games this season

PLAY: TORONTO -105 (should be a barn burner - like 6-4)

Ovechkin

I listen to some sports/hockey podcasts, one I like is the Cheap Seats. They talk about all sports, but have a nice concentration on hockey, even though every single sports story this week is on Jerome Bettis. After the obligatory Super Bowl talk, they had a nice discussion about Alexander Ovechkin, and they mentioned there's a video out there with some of his best highlights from the season. They mentioned video.google.com, but I couldn't find it there. I found it on, you guessed it, youtube.com. Check it out, this kid is amazing.

Welcome Doug

That's Doug's first post here, welcome dude. Hopefully this will increase the frequency of Shaved Ice updates, and get some discussions going. One correction, the Sharks are 1-6 in shootouts this year. As Victor Chi noted in the Mercury today, Patrick Marleau is the worst on the team, going 0-5 in shootouts. The Sharks' best shootout guy? Nils Ekman, who is 2 for 6, a whopping 33%. The best in the NHL right now is Jussi Jokinen from Dallas, 8 for 8.

I saw Jokinen in the shootout this past weekend against Detroit, and apparently he has done the same move a couple of times. He's a right-handed shot, and comes at the goal a little bit from the right. He goes across the goal like he's going to the backhand. He pulls it to the backhand, then quickly back to the forhand. At the same time he goes back to the forehand, he takes his left hand off of the stick, then uses his right hand to guide the puck back to the far right corner of the goal. Pretty cool, because the goalie goes from his left to right to follow Jokinen, and leaves that whole side open. Not completely unlike the famous Peter Forsberg move he did in the World Cup a number of years ago, so famous it even made a postage stamp in Sweden. Maybe I'll have the balls to try it in a game myself, but I'll probably trip and hit my head on the crossbar.

Sharks Sterile in Shootout

GAME NOTES - WILD 3 SHARKS 2
I couldn't resist the title - but why is it so true?? Watching the overtime period in the Sharks 3-2 loss to the Wild tonight, it was obvious that Minnesota was just toying with the puck and begging for a shootout so the Sharks could implode....AGAIN. Not sure on the stats, but I'm guessing the Sharks must be 1-7 in the shootout this year.

Typical Sharks. A huge road win in Anahiem needed to be followed up by a win against a reeling Wild club - and they could not get it done. Now we sit seven points behind the Oilers. Am I the only one who fears the Sharks just won't make the climb??

GM's OFFICE
Doug Wilson should deal for two veteran defensemen......wait, isn't that what the Oilers just acquired in Spacek and Tarnstrom. Where was Doug Wilson when the Blackhawks were giving away Spacek for peanuts? Patrick Marleau also deserves to have a RW that can put the puck in the net. Without that RW/LW sniper, opponents key on the Thornton line and don't have to worry about anyone else beating them. I'm tired of Niko. Owen Nolan anyone???

PICK OF THE DAY
CAROLINA HURRICANS at NEW JERSEY DEVILS
Carolina is banged up, with four starting D on the injury report (Tverdovsky, Ward, Commodore and Wesley) All might play - but they are hurting.
Carolina has a five game winning streak - but all games vs. non playoff teams
Devils are coming off a big home win vs. Ottawa
Devils are 6-0 at home in 2006.
Carolina won big in NJ earlier in the year.....Devils will want revenge.

PLAY: NEW JERSEY - 125

Sharks win in Anaheim

The Sharks won last night against Anaheim, 6-4. The game wasn't televised, so I couldn't even TiVo it. I think it was on the radio, but I had a hockey game of my own, and there isn't really a TiVo for radio. Well, there is, but I'm not that hardcore. Kind of eerie that it's called the radio SHARK.

But I digress. Cheechoo had a hat trick, his second against Anaheim this season. To continue the thread I was talking about recently, The Sharks committed 10 penalties, and 2 in the last 10 minutes. The Ducks had 8, with one in the last 10 minutes. Found some cool stuff on NHL.com. The interface is kind of clunky, but you can get much more information than on ESPN.com. I like the ESPN box scores much better though. Anyway, the Sharks have been shorthanded 253 times this season, the 2nd least. Only the Devils have been shorthanded fewer times. I say that's definitely a testament to the Sharks discipline. Perhaps my recent observation that the Sharks commit to many late penalties is just me being frustrated about bad losses. Can't generate a report that breaks down the penalties by period yet.

Two more tricksy goals

Found two more tricky highlight-reel goals, not on youtube:

• Some crazy razzle-dazzle skills competition goal. Fun times, could never happen in a game.
• Mike Legg-esque scoop goal in the minors. Cool thing about this one is the guy never had time to set it up- he did it while he was skating.

Sharks lose again to Dallas, 3-2 in OT

First of all, let me say initially that I only saw the third period of this game. The Sharks seemed to be playing very listlessly the entire period, and managed to commit three penalties in the final 10 minutes, one of them giving up at 5-on-3 for 40 seconds. If I remember correctly from the telecast, the Sharks have given up 11 2-man advantage goals this season. That's a lot.

The Sharks have a terrible penalty kill, currently 26th out of 30 teams. To commit that many penalties late in the game against a division leader on the road is just stupid. I hope Ron Wilson is cracking some heads, because those are unacceptable mental errors. Looking back over the last few games, I see they committed 3 penalties in the last 10 minutes against Phoenix as well. The first of those resulting in a Coyotes' power play goal to make the game 5-1, putting the game effectively out of reach. The Sharks also had two penalties in the last 10 minutes in the win against the Kings last week, when the game was only 3-1.

I wish I had access to a full NHL stats database so I could compare the Sharks against all the other teams this season in this regard, but I can't, and it would take forever to page through all the box scores. Any ideas?

Fun Weekend, but not for the slumping Sharks

Had a great weekend, despite the fact that the Sharks managed to drop another game to a Pacific-division opponent. Completely folded up the tent in a 6-2 loss to Phoenix. Nabokov was pulled after the first two goals. The question is, did the Sharks pull him because his groin is still less than 100%, or is Nabby falling out of favor? Nabokov said that he felt fine, and felt he was seeing the puck ok. Remember, I posited not so long ago that the Sharks could trade Nabokov for a blueliner. Unless the Sharks know something I don't, I beseech them to do something fast, if they in fact have playoff aspirations. If we manage to lose to Dallas tonight, then get spanked by the Ducks again on February 1 and 4, we'll be pretty well screwed. And that's not just me being pessimistic- the Sharks are bad on the road (9-14-2) and just got shut out by the Ducks last week.

Tonight the Sharks are at Dallas (1-2 this season), in another critical game. I hope the Sharks actually play with some urgency this time.

By the way, found out today I share the same birthday as the current Senior Vice President and Director of Hockey Operations for the NHL as well as both Joey Fatone and Nick Carter. Not really something to brag about.

Video Clips of Great Goals

Maybe I'm behind the times a bit here, but I just discovered youtube.com. People can upload video clips, and you can just do a keyword search to find interesting stuff. Everything from home videos to SNL skits to movie previews. I decided I'd search and amass some great goals that I remember, in no particular order:

• Marek Malik's shootout goal this year. Who knew a D-man would have a move like that?
  
• The legendary scoop shot from behind the goal in a Michigan game. If you don't know immediately what this is, then it's imperative you watch the video.
  
• A great Mario Lemieux moment. Mario has a pass right to him, an open shot at the net, and instead of shooting, completely lets it go by him to Kariya, who scores.
• Ovechkin's acrobatic behind-the-head-one-handed-lying-on-his-back thing. I think there's a healthy dose of luck invovled with this one, but it's still pretty spectacular.
• A cool compilation in an unknown language. A top 10 highlight reel. Contains one of my favorites- Owen Nolan calling his shot in the All-Star game. Big Onions.
  

I wish they had Stevie Y's 1996 blue-line slap shot against the Blues in double OT to win it, but I can't find it. Drop me a line if you have the video.

Hockey and Steroids

Time to weigh in on the whole steriods thing, and I'll mention the Bryan Berard case specifically at the end. First off, a quote from Terry Frei in ESPN:

No way. Not in this sport.

For one thing, taking to the ice with a juiced-up body isn't a significant advantage -- or any advantage at all -- for the most part, and it even can be counterproductive, given the strain skating puts on the muscles.

I hope this is a joke, but reading the rest of the article, it's clear it's meant seriously. Now I ain't no doctor (but I'm married to a nurse) but even this feeble engineer's brain can contemplate that PEDs (performance enhancing drugs) can be advantageous in hockey. Take me, for example. I'm a skinny bastard, about 5-11, 155 lbs. If I dedicated my life to hockey, and depended on it for my living, and I needed to gain 25 pounds, PEDs could help me do that with a lot less effort than going to Gold's for 4 hours a day. Would I be "juiced up"? Certainly. Would I look like Lou Ferrigno? No. I'm sure I could 'roid it up until I was 240, but that wouldn't help me play hockey much, would it? I hope Mr. Frei isn't implying that once you take steriods, you suddenly turn into some muscle-laden meathead. Steroids help you gain muscle when you work out. Change the workout, change the results.

I had to search around the web for about 45 seconds before I found Ryan Franklin. Franklin was suspended by Major League Baseball for steroid use, and is 6-3, 190 lbs. That's not real big, but can anyone argue that 6-3, 190 is worse than 6-3, 180 if you play a pro sport?

On to Bryan Berard. He tested positive, but as the AP story says:

The test the 28-year-old Berard failed wasn't part of the NHL's new testing program that began Sunday, so he will not be subject to league discipline.

To me this makes sense, done deal. You can't just apply rules after the fact.

It's hard for me to work up righteous indignation about the steriods thing, regardless of the sport. I think the basis behind all the uproar is some delusional idea that sports (especially baseball) stay constant over time, only the players change. Maybe it works a little bit for baseball, but other sports it's pretty ridiculous. No NFL lineman in the 1960's would even get a tryout today- they're all too small. You can be a 6-9 point guard in the NBA. Let's face it, the players today are better, more prepared, than players of eons past. Trancendental talent can transcend time, but in general, players are just better.

And part of being better is having more tools and knowledge of training. Like it or not, that includes steriods. It's these guys' very livelihood to be better, faster, stronger, than the other guy. There will always be someone willing to sacrifice long-term health for short-term success. I have very little faith that the cutting-edge testing methods will outpace cutting-edge chemicals. There's just too much money in the chemicals.

The Pacific vs. other divisions

Tom Benjamin has a great post about the records of the different divisions and conferences on his blog. Funny, I was thinking the same thing a couple of days ago when I was examining the standings. Tom does things in his posting like compile the overall record of each division, and the number of points amassed on average per game.

I did one other calculation, which only further confirms what Tom has said, with a little wrinkle. I generated the standard deviation of each division, which indicates the amount that data is spread in a sample. In simple terms, it tells you how far apart the rich and poor are. Not only does the Northwest have the highest average point total, it also has the lowest standard deviation, which means that all the teams are good, and close to each other.

• Northwest: 58.6 AVG, 4.15 STD
  
• Northeast: 56.4 AVG, 9.6 STD
• Pacific: 56.6 AVG, 7.3 STD
• Atlantic: 52.8, 14.5 STD
• Southeast: 52.6, 12.3 STD
• Midwest: 48.4, 18.2 STD
  

The Pacific, while having roughly the same average points as the Northeast, have a lower standard deviation. I would argue that this makes the Pacific a tougher division than the Northeast. The Sharks have to play the same teams on average that the Northeast does, but the worst teams are better. The Sharks don't have a Toronto or Montreal playing badly right now (despite Jan Bulis' 4 goals last night). All the teams in the Pacific are tough, and all have 50 points or more. Since the schedule is very division-heavy, this is an important factor; each team plays all the other teams in the division 8 times each during the regular season.

This sheds some new light on Detroit and Nashville, currently tied with 68 points, leading the West. The other three teams in the Midwest are Chicago, Columbus, and St. Louis, 3 of the 4 worst teams in the NHL. Detroit is 13-1 against these teams so far this season! Since Detroit and Nashville have the luxury of playing these bad teams 24 times during the season, it's little wonder why their records are so good. It's not their fault they have to play against bad teams, but it might be a harbinger of an early-round upset in the playoffs. Maybe a 1994-esque upset for the Sharks?

Sharks Own the Kings, and Power Play Stats Fun

Sharks won again last night against the Kings, 4-1. The Kings have only won one of the last 11 games versus the Sharks, we OWN 'em. The Sharks scored twice on the power play, which sounds good, but it was out of 11 chances, a 18.2% rate. Interesting notes:

• Right now the Sharks have the median power play, 16th out of 30 teams, converting at 17.5%.
  
• They are still below average, the average power play conversion rate is 17.56%.
  
• Don't like statistics? Too bad.
  
• The standard deviation of PP% is 2.71, which means that Detroit (25%) is 2.75 standard deviations above the mean.
  
• Chicago has the worst PP% at 12.9%, but are only 1.71 STD below the mean.
  

What does this all mean (haha)? That's the Sharks' power play is decidedly mediocre. And that Detroit's power play is 'more good' than Chicago's is bad, and that's saying a lot.

Mario Lemieux

Mario Lemieux announced his retirement today. He had an injury-plagued career for the Pittsburg Penguins, but still managed to tally 690 goals in only 915 NHL games. He won Stanley Cups in 1991 and 1992, and was inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame in 1997, after his 1st retirement, when he had Hodgkin's disease.

He was a hell of a deceptive player, possessing huge size and reach, and I can't recall seeing him ever skate super-hard. Not that that is a dig- he had a mesmerizing flow to his game, and perhaps the best hands of any big man in NHL history.

So the question that Barry Melrose and Darren Pang answered today on Sportscenter is, where does he rank? Is he better than Gretzky?

It ain't even close. Gretzky is clearly better. He had a longer career, more points, more records, more trophys, more Cups. Gretz had 10 Hart trophies (MVP). Mario had 2. The one argument I heard when Mario retired the first time is that Mario averaged more points per game than Gretzky- 2.00 (1494 points in 745 games), which was unprecedented in the NHL. But Mario at that point did not suffer the inevitable trailoff that players do when they get into their mid 30s. Those stats are 1984 through 1997- 12 seasons. Let's look at Gretzky's first 12 seasons in the NHL- 1979 through 1992. That's 2142 points in 925 games, for a 2.31 points per game average. Still think there's an argument here? Gretzky had a longer career, and a longer and higher peak.

The real question is where Mario ranks in the annals of the all time greats. To make a baseball analogy, it's a Sandy Koufax problem. What do you do with a guy who didn't have longevity, but a short-lived brilliance? In my mind, peak production counts, but so does longevity. There's also the inevitable stickiness of comparing players in different eras. How do you compare Lemieux with Howe or Richard? Richard had more points. The best thing about sports is arguing about stuff, so here's my top 5 skaters in order:

1. Wayne Gretzky. No comparison. I don't know if there's every been a player in a major sport that's been more dominant during his career than Wayne.
2. Gordie Howe. 25 years in the NHL counts for something, along with being #2 in all time goals. More points, trophies, and Cups than Lemieux. And I don't count that whole "played in 12 different decades" farce he conducted in the 70's, 80's and 90's.
   
3. Bobby Orr. Indisputably the best defensemen of all time, and revolutionized the defensive position. Suprisingly, he played in fewer games than Mario, but still won more Harts, along with 8 straight Norris trophies (best defenseman).
4. Mario Lemieux. Tough one between him and Orr. Managed to win 2 Hart trophies even though he played in the Gretzky era.
   
5. Maurice "The Rocket" Richard. First 50 goal scorer, and in a time where scoring 40 was amazing.
   

Comments are enabled, so let the flames begin.

What's a few months between friends?

Ok, so I've been terribly derelict in my blogging duties. It's certainly not attributable to my lack of hockey fandom, as I've watched more games this season than any other. Since we are at about the halfway point of the season (Sharks are 3 games past at the time of this writing), let me give my Sharks roundup for the first half:

Offense:
There's no doubt in my mind that the Thornton trade made the Sharks a helluva lot better, and quickly. The line was until recently Thornton, Cheechoo, and Ekman, and whenever they've been on the ice, they've pretty well dictated play. Cheechoo has since been moved (demoted?) to the Marleau line, but I think he'll be back. And while I think that Marleau has the ability to be a first-line center, matching up against the opponents' best defensive pair rendered him not completely useless, but certainly mediocre. Marleau centering the second line provides the Sharks with maybe the best 1-2 center combination in the league. Although admittedly Alyn McAuley had a career year last year, he seems largely ineffective this year, and would be my biggest offensive disappointment. I didn't get to see him play much in Toronto, and perhaps he's just assumed his old form. Mark Smith's grittiness and good wrist shot has been a nice surprise.

Defense:
Clearly the weakest aspect of the Sharks right now. Tom Preissing, who has the best +/- on the team (+12) is back, but has been out recently with injury. Scott Hannan was near the bottom of the league in +/- for the first quarter of the season, but is now at a more reasonable level (-3). The Sharks miss Mike Rathje more than they thought they would, and trading Brad Stuart didn't help. The defensive corps is just too inexperienced in my view to lead the Sharks deep in the playoffs, and maybe to the playoffs at all. Ehrhoff, Fahey, Gorges, Murray, and Preissing all have 100 games or less of NHL experience. Davison has only 110 games. Scott Hannan and Kyle McLaren, while probably top-4 defensemen on nearly any NHL team, are not enough.

Special Teams:
The power play was the worst aspect of the Sharks' game early in the season, and the most positively affected by the Thornton trade. Putting Marleau at the point on the power play has also helped. The Sharks were in the last 3 or 4 teams in the entire NHL for PP% in November, and now they are middle of the pack. The last few games the Sharks have taken too many penalties, which completely cost them one game (Phoenix) and almost another (LA). Giving up 5-on-3 advantages for one minute or more is bad news when your kill is in the bottom half of the league.

Goaltending:
Traditionally one of the Sharks' biggest strengths, but injuries have hurt. Both Nabokov and Toskala missed quite a big of time, but we got to see Nolan Schaefer step up in late October (5-1, 1.88 GAA). Both Nabby and Toskala have been a little shaky, but they've both turned in good quality starts in January. I'm not concerned.

Looking Forward:
The Sharks might make the playoffs with their current roster, but given the quality of the West right now, it'll be a tough battle. They've been bad against division opponents, and continuing this trend will certainly eliminate a lot of hope in January; they play 4 more division games, and 4 in February. Unless they are much better than .500 in those 8 games, they'll be pretty much out of the playoff picture by the Olympic break. Since Nabby will be an unrestricted free agent next year, and both Schaefer and Dmitri Patzhold are playing well in the minors, look for the Sharks to deal him for a good stay-at-home defensemen in the next month. Names I've seen so far are Brendan Witt, Martin Skoula, and Eric Weinrich. Since Skoula is on the Stars now, and Turco is playing so well, I'm pretty sure that won't happen. Doug Wilson will not make the "Kipper to Calgary for a bag of pucks" mistake again. I'm hoping the Sharks don't trade a quality goalie like Nabokov for a solid defenseman in the twilight of his career, like Brian Leetch or Sergei Gonchar.