The one that got away.....

Will the come from behind victory by the Red Wings haunt the Sharks for the remainder of Round Two?

Will this game go down as "the one that got away" by Sharks fans across the Bay Area?

My answer is, simply, no.

Relax Sharks faithful. Remember, we lost Game Two to Nashville in more embarrassing fashion than this afternoon's loss. I thought the Sharks did some things well today. We dictated play for the first period and the score could have been easily 4-0 if not for Hasek's friend "the post". Even after the Sharks lost the lead, I thought they had control of the third period. A blunder by Nabby on an attempted clear proved to be the decider. I agree with Mike - Mark Bell needs to sit and Pavelski should return. Other than that one change (which I don't think Ron Wilson will make) there is no need to panic. Both teams played good, solid hockey and this day happened to belong to the Wings.

We got what we wanted - one in Motown. The Tank will be jumping and Shaved Ice will be there. I don't think there's any tickets Puckheads, not like a Red Wings game where you can walk up and buy a $90 nosebleed.

I'm not worried. I'm not even sweating. This game will not be remembered. There is something magic in the Bay Area water right now. The Warriors have the Dallas Mavericks on the ropes. The Giants had an eight game win streak. Even the 49ers had a good draft today.

"The one that got away" will be a minor speedbump on our road to the Cup.

P.S. If we put video of that fat man waving an octupus over his head in a time capsule, people in 400 years will think the Puckheads of Detroit were the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest. Wait - there's going to be no Detroit in 400 years. Global Warming. Al Gore told me so.

Game 1

Random thoughts on the game:

• Bertuzzi has really lost something. He was a one-man wrecking crew when he had the breakout season in Vancouver, then whole Steve Moore thing and a panoply of injuries. It's strange to see Jiri Hudler being more physical in the Sharks zone than Bertuzzi. Maybe he really is rattled about the Moore incident, and can't conduct his game with the same nasty edge as before.
  
• Big Joe looked nervous at first- man, he sure had a bunch of give aways right at the beginning, didn't he? But settled down quite a bit in the 2nd and 3rd periods. Would have been nice to see him rush through the neutral zone a bit more.
  
• Vlasic- does anything bother this kid?

Funny, even though the score was 2-0, the big problem for the Sharks was offense. They seemed to retreat a bit into their shell after the 1st, and not pursue dump ins as aggressively, if at all. There were few attempts to carry the puck into the zone, something Michalek and Marleau are fairly adept at. This will increase the number of our power play chances, because Detroit is disciplined, and will not take penalties in the offensive zone.

The defense had a similar strategy against Nashville. Detroit is an even better possession team than Nashville, and the D's job was to keep them on the boards, block shots, and not let any passes through the middle. I give an A+ in this regard. There were a couple of fat rebounds, but the coverage was stellar, not allowing clear shots. The redirect that Lidstrom missed was really the only uncontested open chance I remember. Every other scoring opportunity Nabby was nice and square. It was so good I'm not sure how much of an impact Holmstrom would have had. On several occasions Cleary or Bertuzzi were camped out, but no pucks got through.

No doubt game 2 will be a lot different. If the over-under is 5.5, I'll take the over.

Do we have your attention Motown?

Now, now. I know hockey is new to us ignorant Cali-forn-i-a folk. We don't know anything about hockey. We just like to wear buttless chaps, make sourdough bread bowls and watch our beloved Sharks while sipping fine Napa Valley merlot. Let's get it straight Motown. I'm certainly smart enough to realize this series has only just begun but......ah, hell.....I can't resist.

HOW ABOUT THEM SHARKS???

I'm not going to gloat or boast or dress up in my teal thong and ride down the Castro into a rainbow of hockey happiness. That would be dumb because we still have to whip your ass three more times. It is going to happen. Just like we said. The Sharks are bigger and stronger. The Sharks defense is better. And the Sharks had one power play and, guess what Puckheads, they scored. Just like Mike and I said they would.

I could continue to berate you Puckheads, but I'm showing uncharacteristic restraint. Maybe it's the Girl Scout in me? Maybe it's the case of Jack Daniels I just drank? Maybe it's because I have to get up early to help Dominick Hasek close his five hole....

I just wanted to make sure we have your full attention Motown.

Does the Draper match the Cleary?

Our friend in Motown has spoken again and made some valid points. He calls our beloved Sharks "The Team We Don't Speak Of". A clear sign of fear, admiration and, dare I say, jealousy. Let's break down this series, shall we?

PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE
Detroit fans can recite this mantra until they are blue....I mean red....I mean blue in the face. "We have Cup experience. We have players who know how to win. We have delicious hot spiced apple cider." These may all be true, but the Sharks have been a team on the rise for three straight years now. They have won four playoff series from 2003-2007 with this core group of players in comparision to the Wings who have won two playoff series. "BUT WE WON THE CUP" you Puckheads will say. Yes, yes you did. But those players aren't there anymore. Hull and Luc are drinking Pabst Blue Ribbon on a moose farm with Paul Coffey. The old farts you still have are a shell of their former selves. Hasek is one split away from another groin tear....more on this painful sack strain later.

THE BATTLE OF THE BLUE LINES
The Sharks have better defensive defensemen. This is a fact. Hannan is a shutdown blueliner who will get most of the time against the Wings top line. McLaren, Rivet and wonder-kid Vlasic are beyond steady. The Wings have the two best offensive defensemen in the league. I admire them, I really do. Chelios is still functioning, god knows how. After that, I am not afraid. "BUT YOU CLEARLY HAVEN'T WATCHED THE WINGS PLAY. THEY ARE GOOD. THEY ARE GOOD" you Puckheads will say. Um...I have. I wasn't impressed with how Calgary played offensively. They made the Wings look good with the fact that they are completely "Corky" on the road. Playfair should be fired, by the way. I think I saw Sutter vomit in his mouth.

THUNDER JOE - MVP
The Wings will be unable to stop Thunder Joe. They will be unable to deal with the size of the 220 pound ++ Sharks forwards. Joe will dominate but the difference in this series will be the line of Bernier/Clowe/Goc. Remember those names, Puckheads. They are going to make your life miserable the next two weeks. I don't need to fill you in on who these babies are....you will know them soon enough.

Now for my three predictions.

1) Hasek will injure himself sometime in the first three games and not return for the rest of the series. He will later be arrested for betting on the World Championships with Rick Tocchet.

2) The Sharks power play (#2 in the NHL) will find its groove again versus the Wings. The Sharks struggled against the Preds (the #3 PK team), but it just didn't matter...did it? We whipped their ass anyways, power play be damned. There's no way the leagues second best PP can be on ice forever.

3) The Sharks will win in six. Sharks/Ducks live out the movie California Dreamin: Ron Wilson's Revenge. All you Puckheads will be crying in your Eastern time zone beers, talking about the glory days and how San Jose hasn't won any Cups. The end.

Excuse me....I have a girl scout meeting. Anyone want to buy some cookies?

2nd round picks

I hate to divert from our spirited debate with Abel to Yzerman, but I have to get my 2nd round picks in. Short and sweet.

Wings vs Sharks. Sharks- too big. Wings- too old. Sharks in 7.

Anaheim vs Vancouver. Not scoring against Dallas- we can still win. Not scoring against Anaheim- smell ya later. Ducks in 6.

Sabres vs. Rangers. Rangers beat up an overrated team, but have good goaltending. Sabres will turn it on after wandering a bit versus the Isles. Sabres in 5.

Devils vs. Senators. Normally I'd pick the Devils, my second favorite team for reasons that make little sense. But their injuries are too numerous to ignore against a streaking Senators team. Sens in 6.

Ode to a Lonely Wings fan

John Bucigross: Sharks in seven.

Congratulations to Abel to Yzerman for finding our little blog out here in beautiful California. We welcome you with open arms but a word of caution: this eleven year old girl has Barbies with playoff beards, nasty hip checks and a few comments of her own.

Scott Burnside: Sharks in seven.

As you know, California is the land of fun and sun, and although we don’t have as much of a storied hockey history as your legendary Red Wings, Sharks fans do have the foresight to recognize that our time is now and the Red Wings are only treading water in our tank.

Linda Cohn: Sharks in six.

Like Mama Cass, the Red Wings love a good choke job. They’ve been here before. Here is how I would break down a typical Red Wing hockey season formula. Number one seed + Home Ice = Early Exit. Let’s face it, the boys will be doing Chris Chelios a favor. The prescription for his osteoporosis meds runs out in early May.

E.J. Hradek: Sharks in six

This is not a good match up for Detroit. Your so called “deepest D in the league” has looked really sharp this year against San Jose, allowing eighteen goals to them this season. Just in case you forgot, and I doubt you have, here were the scores.

Thursday, October 19th Sharks 5 Red Wings 1
Wednesday, October 25th Sharks 1 Red Wings 2
Saturday, December 2nd Sharks 3 Red Wings 2
Thursday, January 4th Sharks 9 Red Wings 4

Barry Melrose: Sharks in six

Sorry. I did watch the Red Wings/Flames series. I had some extra time because, you see, my team won their playoff series in five games.

David Amber: Sharks in seven

The Sharks are deep, deeper than Scottie Bowman’s bowl at all you can eat pasta bar. Bertuzzi is already making plans for Gretzkyland next season. Hasek has booked his ticket for the next flight back to Retireslovakia. The Sharks are your biggest nightmare and in two weeks, you and your readers will hang up your octopi and ponder one of life’s great questions: Will the Lions win four games this year?

SHARKS IN SIX!

Not Bad

So I was 7-1 picking the 1st round series- my only mistake was picking Calgary to win against Detroit. Calgary's complete inability to win on the road spelled doom for them. Note to NHL teams: if you are to win without any wins on the road, you have to have home ice advantage. Calgary didn't, and they didn't. I picked two 'upsets' correctly- the Sharks and Rangers. I didn't think Atlanta was so bad they'd get swept, but I did pick the winner and number of games correctly in the New Jersey and Anaheim series.

I think the next round will be easier to pick winners, but I'm still going to hold off on that post until later today or tomorrow, so I can study the matchups more. I hope to be better with picking the number of games as well.

Why we want to play Detroit....

The Sharks need to play Detroit next. The Red Wings have been beaten down, bruised and frustrated by a physical Calgary team. They are poised for their annual postseason collapse, which would have happened in Round One if Calgary could have mounted any sort of offensive attack. We need the Wings now because tackling the Ducks in Round Two will be too emotional. If...wait, I mean when we beat the Ducks, and we will beat the Ducks, it will be a huge accomplishment. I fear our guard could be down and a hungry Dallas/Detroit winner will take advantage.

The Ducks have to be the final step before we play for Lord Stanley. It is hockey destiny. GO CANUCKS!

Looking Back, Looking Forward

So I have to say I'm surprised that the Sharks won in five games. As you remember, I picked the Sharks to win in 7, and I wasn't exactly confident in my pick. A few reasons why I think the Sharks won in such a convincing fashion:

• Good timing. They scored goals at crucial times, Patrick Marleau's goal in game 5 being the most obvious.
• Frustrating defense. The Preds did get the cycle going, as I said before, but the D did not allow passes to go through the middle, or allow guys in the slot an unimpeded whack at the puck.
  
• Great goaltending. Nabby came up huge a number of different times, times where the momentum could have really shifted. Instead the Sharks could attack and counter-attack knowing they have a Smythe-quality goalie backing them up.

So now we look ahead to the conference semis. I have to assume if the Sharks keep winning, they will have to play Anaheim sooner or later, so do we want sooner or later? Here's the pros and cons of playing them now:
Pros:

• The Sharks have only played 5 games, are relatively injury free (Cheech is still not himself) and will be rested for round 2. Playing Dallas or Detroit could be a long series, leaving them tired and battered for the conference finals.
  
• Nabby is on his game, and could easily steal one or more games.
• Most of the lines are clicking right now, and we'll need balanced scoring to win against the Ducks.

Cons:

• They're the Ducks, and we're only 3-5 against them this season.
  
• They are also rested and healthy. The longer they play, the better the chance that one of their grey-beards (Selanne, Pronger, Niedermayer) will get hurt.
• Our power play is sucking ass, and Anaheim takes a lot of penalties. We'll need to make the most of the PP.

Given all this, I'd have to say I think I'd rather play the Ducks next, assuming we will have to play them. In the most likely scenario, they could roll over Vancouver in 4 or 5 games, and the Detroit series could be long. The last thing we want is to limp into a series against a rested, ready Duck team. Our best chance to beat them is right now.

Thoughts on Games 3 and 4

I know this is a really original thought, but man, there's nothing like playoff hockey. The play is quicker, harder, and much more intense. The mood of the crowd is nervous- eager to cheer at the slightest good fortune or play. And on the flip side, the Sharks crowd gets pretty quiet when Nashville is running their power cycle in our zone.

Which happened pretty often.

Last night especially, the Preds could cycle deep in our zone almost at will in the first and second periods. Kariya would have it at the half-boards. Dump it low. Forsberg would be there, maybe go behind the net and kick it out to the point, which would shoot or go around back to Kariya. Repeat. Repeat. Repeat. To the Sharks' credit, they had strong coverage in the middle, and didn't let a forward have a good swipe at an open puck (there weren't many, thanks to Nabby) or slip out to the weak side and look for a pass.

At least in game 4, I think it just came down to better goaltending, and more clutch performances. If you looked at every possession that didn't result in a goal and had to predict the score, you'd probably predict Nashville 4-1 or maybe worse. But Nabby came up huge, and the Sharks had good bounces and plays. Especially Pavelski's goal. He really created something out of nothing there.

So the question is- is it really the Sharks' size, as Rusonowsky and Baker are saying on the radio? Or is it Nashville's horrible road playoff record (0-7)? Since the Sharks did take one in Tennessee, I have to think it's a bit of both. I'm making a bold prediction here, but I think game 5 could be a decisive Sharks victory, not a nail-biter like the last two. Nashville will come out in full-court press mode, and will try to cycle and push. If the Sharks stay disciplined and counter-attack, they could put up goals quickly. And I think Nashville, after their all-or-nothing trades this year, could get desperate and take penalties. The San Jose PP has to start scoring soon, you don't want to wake the sleeping giant. It might just wake up on Friday.

Cheech, and dirty hits

So I make it a point to read the Mercury News coverage of Sharks hockey, since it is the hometown paper here on the Sharks, and I have to agree with Mark Purdy. Mark, please do me a favor- STOP REFERRING TO THE SHARKS AS "LOS TIBURONES". It was old about a decade ago, and it hasn't exactly taken the country by storm. Anyway, Purdy's column talks about how Barry Trotz said hit shouldn't have even been a penalty, and opines that Hartnell should have been suspended.

First things first. Trotz, while not having a neck, is sticking up for his guy, and is completely ridiculously wrong. It's a dirty hit. It came late, and was a bush-league effort. It was not designed to put body on body- it was intended to block Cheech by taking his feet out. As Purdy said, Trotz would be outraged if Forsberg or Kariya was on the receiving end of such a hit. So outraged he might actually grow himself a neck. Sorry, but that joke is just too damn easy.

Check out this post. It has stills from the video. Clearly Hartnell has his right knee forward, and from the video, we know he is gliding. That means he's trying to hit Cheech with his knee. We also see his elbow contacting Cheechoo's head. I believe Hartnell when he said that he didn't try to take Cheech's knee out, but it's hard to argue that he wasn't trying to take him out in a extraordinarily reckless way. He got 'unlucky' and took Cheech's knee out, but did successfully elbow him in the head, knocking out a tooth.

I'm not getting my righteous indignation on here, because this kind of thing can and does happen to a lot of players. Hartnell is a tough, gritty player that made a shitty play. He deserves a suspension, and more than one game. He wasn't calculating the attack angle on Cheech's knee to determine maximum ACL damage, but it was a dirty hit that could have had career-ending consequences. Ask Cam Neely about how easy that happens.

First Round Predictions

The East

• Buffalo(1) vs. Islanders(8). Buffalo clearly overmatches Islanders in every category except possibly goaltending, but that's only when DiPietro is healthy and he's not. Polish up them 9-irons, you'll be using them soon. Sabres in 4.
• New Jersey(2) vs. Tampa Bay(7). Can the creative and explosive Lecavalier, St. Louis, and Richards overcome a Devils defense that is designed to turn creativity and explosiveness into a yawning, 100-neutral-zone-turnovers-per-game snoozefest? Probably not, but New Jersey might have trouble scoring, now that half their team are nursing injuries. Plus the Lightning goaltending sucks. Devils in 6.
• Atlanta(3) vs. Rangers(6). Atlanta made deadline moves for Tkachuk, Zhitnik, Dupuis, and Belanger, and won the season series 3-1, but I think Lundquist being hot, and unmistakable scoring power in Jagr and Shanahan will be enough to stumble the playoff first-timers. Rangers in 6.
• Ottawa(4) vs. Pittsburg(5). Probably the most exciting series of the first round. You need a full hand to count the superstar scorers involved- Crosby, Malkin, Heatley, Spezza, Alfredsson. Ottawa are 'chokers' in the first round, but Pittsburg's lack of defense will be their undoing. Crosby doesn't give up, but he'll have more trouble with Phillips, Redden, and Mezsaros than Heatley will have with Gonchar(who doesn't play defense) and Orpik (who?). Ottawa in 6.
  

The West

• Detroit(1) vs. Calgary(8). Detroit's gaudy record is fluffed by playing 24 games against the dregs of the west, St. Louis, Columbus, and Chicago. Zetterberg and Kronwall are out, and the Wings will hurt for scoring with only Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and the inevitable Nik Lidstrom with over 60 points. Calgary can finally score, but their D is weaker than years past. Yet they have perennial Vezina candidate Kipper to back them up, while the Dominator could go down at any time, he's 42. And yes, I'm still bitter about the Kiprusoff trade, even though we drafted Vlasic with the pick we got. Calgary in 6.
  
• Anaheim(2) vs. Minnesota(7). Some people have picked Minnesota in an upset, and while I hate the Ducks as much as any Sharks fan, those people are on friggin' crack. The Ducks, while not playing in a Jacque Lemaire-inspired robotic trance, are better at every phase except maybe PK. Every time Gaborik and Demitra are on the ice, they'll be staring down the barrel of two Norris winners. Have fun with that. Ducks in 5.
• Vancouver(3) vs. Dallas(6). Vancouver was the matchup I didn't want, and I'll happily watch Dallas go down like a sack of dirt. They might be able to stop the Sedins for a while, sooner or later they will score, while Dave Tippett will be cursing management for saddling him with Ladislav Nagy. Turco would have to stand on his head, something he's never done in the playoffs, but oh yeah, he's against the Vezina favorite, Roberto Luongo. Later Stars. Vancouver in 5.
• Nashville(4) vs. Sharks(5). While the Vancouver matchup would be worse, this one is plenty bad. As Sharks fans all know, San Jose has a dismal record against all the other playoff teams, 1-3 against Nashville. This year we get the pleasure of facing Vokoun instead of Mason, and Forsberg added to their already-powerful lineup. If Cheech and Nabby can stay hot, we can win the series. But I'm so far away from objective it isn't even funny. Sharks in 7.
  

Coming Soon

Before Wednesday- full prediction of the first-round matchups.

The Crazy Cryin' Crazy Amazo-crazy Western Conference

So the West is good. Ridiculously good. Right now the Sharks have 96 points, only good enough for 7th in the West. To put that in a bit of context, 96 points is higher than any 7th seed for the past 20 years. Probably longer, but I didn't feel like going back any further. It's likely that the top 7 seeds in the West will have over 100 points, the first time that has ever happened.

But now that there are so many extra points given the shootout, aren't those numbers inflated? Of course. Right now, teams are earning an average of 1.115 points per game, so the whole two-points-for-a-win thing is skewed by the number of OT games where 3 points are awarded. So how do we normalize?

We normalize by the number of wins, not points. The number of season games has stayed constant long enough that we can make some historical comparisons. And we cut out shootout wins. That gives us the number of wins a team made in regulation and OT, which avoids the new requirement that there has to be a winner. So here's the new top 8, sorted just by regulation and OT wins:

1. San Jose - 45
2. Detroit - 43
3. Nashville - 42
4. Anaheim - 40
5. Vancouver - 40
6. Dallas - 38
7. Calgary - 38
8. Minnesota - 35

If I had bothered to run the numbers before I started the post, I guess I could have made the theme about how the Sharks are getting screwed by the shootout, but it's already too late. My original thesis is still good. It's entirely likely, even probable, that seven teams in the West will have 40 wins or more.

Since the expansion era in the early 90's, that has never happened. Most years it's not even really close. This year's Western Conference is the best collection of teams in a conference in at least 15 years, and probably more.

Tearing it up

The Sharks have been tearing it up lately- they've gotten a point in their last 10 games (8-0-2). And they really played well last night against a streaking Atlanta team. Atlanta is a very quick team that always wants to create odd-man rushes. That gives their snipers, Kovalchuk and Hossa, chances to score. Despite the Thrashers' thirst for turnovers, the Sharks, after playing a fairly sloppy first period, locked it down en route to a 5-1 victory.

Halfway through the game, there were still no penalties called. The Sharks were up 3-1, and I'll let Victor Chi of the Mercury News report the rest:

Coach Bob Hartley yanked goalie Kari Lehtonen in favor of Johan Hedberg. Then on the ensuing faceoff, Jon Sim challenged Bell. Bell, not wanting to scrap with a three-goal lead, declined Sim's initial invitation to fight.

"Then he slashed my stick," Bell said. "I said, `What are you doing?' He said, `We're going.' I said, `Are you serious?' `Yeah.' So I dropped my gloves. I called his bluff. I've played against him before, so I knew he was probably going to run around a little bit."

Bell ended the bout - as well as Sim's night - with a punch that broke an orbital bone.

Nice call, Sim. Way to help your team, by challenging a guy a head taller than you, breaking your face, and missing the rest of the season and the post season. This popped into my head, so I had to get it out. For Mark Bell:
Felony DUI rap : $100,000+
18 points in 64 games, -9 : $2,000,000
Knocking some jackass out that challenged you to a fight: priceless

Looks like a trap game, but it isn't

Sharks play Columbus tonight at home, after beating Phoenix badly last night. Ordinarily, this would look like a trap game, because Columbus is 12th in the west, the Sharks are playing back-to-backs, and play a much better team in Colorado on Sunday

But I think the Sharks won't take this game lightly. We need to continue to accumulate points, given that both Dallas and Anaheim are still winning. Also, the Sharks were embarrased and shut own when they last played the Blue Jackets, on 2/16. Plus, CLS just beat Anaheim in OT a few nights ago, so they've been a bit of the giant killers.

The toughest game in the next upcoming stretch will definitely be Thursday at Atlanta, after having to play Chicago in the Midwestern time zone the night before.

I think Anaheim is pretty much out of reach at this point, so Dallas is the really the one we're in the dogfight with. Looking at the Stars' schedule the rest of the year, they have to play Nashville twice, Anaheim twice, and Detroit. But they also get to play Phoenix three times, in less than two weeks no less. I'd rate our schedule slightly easier. At this point, we're dead even in terms of points, so as long as we play one point better than them, we'll probably get the 5th spot. Then we get the privilege of playing Nashville or Detroit in the first round. Hmm, maybe we should just lay back a bit and take Vancouver. Either way we're in for a ridiculously tough matchup.

Just look at the east 3 through 6- Atlanta, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay. I'd say at this point, any 3-6 West team against any one of those teams would be a big favorite. This sucks.

Farewell, hat

To those who saw or heard about the game last night, this story will be decidedly anti-climactic. Others, read on. So Bill Guerin has been scoreless since he joined the Sharks at the trade deadline- 6 games, no goals, no assists. And not only that, he's been largely unnoticed on the ice. Victor Chi, on the Sharks beat for the SJ Mercury makes a good point- he hasn't gotten much practice time with his linemates (Marleau and Pavelski) because they've been hurt or sick most of the time lately.

So last night the Sharks are completely dominating the game in terms of puck possession, and Guerin drives down the right side on a seemingly routine play, and slides the puck towards the net sort of as an afterthought. It goes right through Patrick Lalime's legs for the first goal of the night. Maybe that's why Lalime's been on 3 teams the last three years. Anyway, the Sharks score two more in the first, one in the second, but sort of stagnate a bit in the 2nd period and get outshot, but not scored upon.

The 3rd period, they're jumping again. Joe and Grier score, and then Guerin scores again, on the power play. Nice little backhand coming from behind the net. So now the fans are rustling a bit- Guerin now has three points, and there's still time for a hat. Guerin has a couple more chances, but nothing goes in. Then, with only seconds left in the third period, Guerin gets a clear chance at the goal, but hooked from behind. Penalty shot!

Sure, the game is 6-1 at this point, so another goal means precisely nothing, but it was pretty electric in there. Guerin had a hat trick against the Sharks while he was with the Blues, and now he might have one for us, his first three goals in a Sharks uni. Crowd on its feet, many waving hats in the air in anticipation, myself included, although it's my beloved Sharks hat.

Guerin skates down slightly left of the goal, pauses, and calmly shoots the puck right through the 5-hole. Pandemonium. Hail of hats. I let mine fly just as the red light went on. Someone relayed it onto the ice for me, and the cheers continued for a long long time. Great stuff.

You'd think we won a playoff series in there, as opposed to beating up on the 13th-best team in the Western Conference. Still, time to buy a new hat.

NHL's new TV deal?

It's funny because it's almost true.

Late Hits and Head Shots

So a couple of big hits in the past week or so have given rise to much hand-wringing about shoulder-to-head contact, and late hits. The first incident was Chris Neil blindsiding Chris Drury, sparking a huge brawl, including a goalie fight. Drury needed 20 stitches to close the cut, and suffered a concussion.

The second was Cam Janssen hitting Tomas Kaberle. Kaberle's head hit both the ice and the boards, and was carted off on a stretcher. Kaberle, who suffered a concussion, is out indefinitely.

I usually like John Buccigross, and appreciate his allegiance to hockey, one of the only SportsCenter anchors who seems to care, but I don't agree with his analysis exactly...

I don't understand why a shoulder pad to the head is not equivalent to an elbow to the head. This is a hit that needs to be outlawed in the NHL.

Bucci is he biggest Drury fanboy out there, so of course he feels this way. I too think the hit on Drury was dirty, but for a different reason. it was blindsided. Drury did not have the puck, had no reason to think he was being run, and had no means to defend himself. Same with the Kaberle hit, although that's a little more arguable. Janssen didn't even begin to initiate contact until well after Kaberle finished his pass. Kaberle wasn't anticipating the hit, and couldn't defend himself.

What we don't want is a shoulder-to-head review committee. What if Zdeno Chara hits Alex Tanguay? Or Scott Parker hits Martin St. Louis? The height different is so great that it'd be hard for it not to be a shoulder-to-head contact. That is not the problem. The real problem is the timing of the hits, and the position of the players. If it's well after the play, then it's a penalty. If it's blindsided, then it's a penalty. If the player is injured and misses time, then the offending player gets a suspension and hefty fine.

There's definitely an equipment component to all this as well. Most shoulder pads have hard plastic plates in them now, which can do more damage and even cut somebody. In many cases, illustrated in the Kaberle hit, players do not wear their helmets tightly, and they slip or fall off completely upon contact. This latter thing should be rectified immediately. If your helmet can slip out of position when you shake or nod your head violently, it should be an equipment violation. How much longer would have Pat LaFontaine's career been if he wore a good helmet all the time? He had a specially-made one late in his career, but the damage was already done.

If the league wants to ban hard plastic plates in shoulder pads, I'm ok with that too. The 'cleanest' NHL hit is a shoulder to the chest, or shoulder to shoulder. With players skating at upward of 30 mph sometimes, the contact point will move quickly. You can't leave your feet to make the hit, you can't run someone after the play, and you have to hit them so they can brace for the contact or defend themselves. Don't take contact out of hockey.

Aftermath of trades

Now that we've added salary (Rivet and Guerin) and only subtracted a little bit (Gorges, Nieminen, Parker) the Sharks must be pretty close to the upper limit of the salary cap. Salary caps are a very complicated matter, with a truckload of rules, stipulations, regulations, and minutia. But I'm kind of a math geek, so I get off on that stuff. Maybe I should study up and become a "cap guru". Yeah, like I don't have enough to do already.

I'm constantly learning new things about it, and all the details are ridiculously obscure. Maybe someday I'll do my version of 'Salary Cap 101'. Here are a couple of good sites that have information on the cap situation for all NHL teams. The former is a bit easier to read, but doesn't seem to have all the updates the trade deadline brought. I'm sure it will be a little while for it to be current.

Quick Correction: I said in my Ryan Smyth trade post that he is the captain. That's not correct, we wore the 'A', and not the 'C'. Jason Smith is the current captian of the Oilers. For a list of all NHL captains, you gotta love wikipedia.

Nolan Schaefer, stolen

For a 7th round pick to the Pens. I guess the whole Jocelyn Thibeault thing didn't work out so well. Kind of a crappy deal, I think Schaefer had promise. Apparently he was a unrestricted free agent after this season. So the Sharks are planning on keeping both goalies, or they have a lot more confidence in Dmitri Patzold than I thought.

We'll miss you

Scott Parker. Maybe we can bring him back this summer. But now, the most fitting tribute I can think of.

Three Trades, one good for the West, two bad

Maybe the biggest trade today other than the Guerin trade is Ryan Smyth from the Oilers to the Islanders for prospects and a pick. Ryan Smyth was the most recognizable player on the Oilers' roster, and the captain, so trading him sends a huge message to the franchise and fans. The Oilers are currently 9 points out of the playoffs, and the fans seem to think this is is Kevin Lowe throwing in the towel on the season. Keep in mind that Smyth is unrestricted this offseason, so it's not out of the question he would have a triumphant return, but he'll be asking for a significant raise and contract length. This will make playing Edmonton that much easier; keeping Smyth from clogging up the crease is a big job.

But alas, Todd Bertuzzi is coming back to the West. And not to the Blues, to a legit contender, the Red Wings. Bertuzzi hasn't played a single game since he hurt his back last year, so it's a risky deal for Detroit. If the gamble pays off, and Bertuzzi plays the way he did a couple of years ago before the Steve Moore incident, the Wings will be a scary opponent. An opponent the Sharks might have to face in the first round.

Possibly the worst trade from the Sharks' perspective is Mattias Norstrom going to Dallas, another captain on the move. I guess this means the Kings are going to build around Anze Kopitar instead of Norstrom, which is a mistake in my view. So the team nipping at our heels just got a lot better on D. Shit, why didn't we make that deal? I'd take Norstrom over Rivet every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Weirdest Trade

So far the weirdest trade has to be Colorado trading Brad May to the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for goaltender Mike Wall. The Ducks have the most fighting majors in the NHL by far. Parros, Shawn Thornton, Travis Moen, and Sean O'Donnell all fight. Why in the hell would they want another fighter? I guess they traded Shane O'Brien, another fighter, to the Lightning last week, so they were running low. Now I guess I'm surprised they didn't go after Laraque too.

Quick Correction

Now the Guerin trade is reported as Guerin for Ville Nieminen, Jay Barribal (prospect playing college hockey at Minnesota) and the 2007 1st round pick we got from the Devils. Nieminen's been a healthy scratch for more games this year than I can count, so we're not exactly giving up the crown jewels here.

Laraque to the East

Georges Laraque has been traded from the Phoenix Coyotes to the Pittsburg Penguins, in return for an 8th round pick and some guy I've never heard of. How the mighty have fallen. At the start of the season, Laraque was playing with Doan on their top line, and I distinctly remember in a Yotes-Sharks game at the Tank looking at the stat sheet, and seeing Laraque leading the team in points. I thought I was in Bizarro world.

But now, apparently Laraque has come back to earth, or has a serious beef with management. He basically got traded for a back of pucks, and waived his no-trade clause. And the Pens got great deal- now they have someone (other than Colton Orr) who can protect Crosby and Malkin. I've never heard anyone utter the words "Colton Orr is a beast", so I say that's definitely an upgrade for the Pens.

Great Start

This is an exciting day in hockey. The trade deadline. Lots of players on the move, new hopes born for teams, and the last chance of contention put to rest. But I have to start with the big deal, again involving the Sharks. Bill Guerin is coming! Sharks trade their remaining first round pick and a "non-roster" player to the Blues for Bill Guerin. Like Rivet, Guerin will be unrestricted in the offseason. But we do add a Stanley Cup winner with 28 goals for no current roster hit. And remember, he played with Joe in Boston. Joe-Bill-Cheech-Carle-Patty on the power play? My heart is already racing.

More deals have already happened, and I'll be adding more posts throughout the day. Still a lot of rumors surrounding Nabby.

Trade Breakdown

So the Sharks did make a deal with the Montreal Canadians over the weekend, but not the one I posted about last, thank God. The trade went down like this- Josh Gorges and the Sharks 2007 1st round pick to the Canadiens for Craig Rivet and a their 2008 5th round pick. The Sharks still have their 1st round pick they got from the Devils for taking on Vladimir Malakhov's cap space.

The worst news about the deal is that Rivet will be unrestricted after this season. But I'm hoping that Doug Wilson has already inquired about locking up Rivet for next season and perhaps beyond. According to the Mercury News article on the trade,

Rivet said one of his first phone calls after the trade will be to his friend Vincent Damphousse, the former Canadiens and Sharks captain, to ask about life in San Jose. "From what I hear, I'm really excited to get down there,'' Rivet said.

This is probably just putting a happy face on the deal, but it makes me feel better than the stuff Joe Thornton said when he was traded. Which was more or less "This is just part of the deal playing in the NHL, and I'll miss Boston." Anyone remember that?

This trade is superior to the rumored Souray deal in several respects. For one, we aren't giving up a top-flight young player. I admire the kid's heart, but I've never been on the Gorges bandwagon. I think he's too small, not physical enough, and lacks the vision of a steady NHL blueliner. Also, we're getting a 'even' player over his career, a long career in which Rivet hasn't scored much. That means he's a solid defensive defenseman, exactly the kind of player we need. I think Souray is clearly the better player, but I'd rather have the focus be on preventing goals rather than creating them.

So let's look at the worst case: Rivet walks after the season. So we would have lost Gorges, and one of our two first round picks. First rounders aren't anything to sneeze at, but given how young kids are drafted, doesn't mean you have a star on your hands. Looking casually at the drafts from about 1998-2004, there seem to be about 5 great-to-star NHL players, with most of them being in the top 5 to 10 picks. The Sharks' pick this year will certainly not be in the top 10. So the changes the Canadiens will turn the pick into a great or star player is probably about even money. I think it's a good gamble for Doug Wilson to take.

<Gulp>

I found a trade rumors site, and see this blurb:

"Charles" sends in the following on the Canadiens: "On CJAD radio in Montreal this morning Michael Farber mentioned Sheldon Souray for Matt Carle. According to Farber, a star player on the Sharks said that it was going around the dressing room and was "a done deal". Farber sees Carle as a Chelios-type player, and no one could begrudge Gainey for trading a guy who likely has 20 games left in a Habs uniform - even if he is the top scorer - for a potential franchise defenceman."

I'm not a NHL player, and I'm not a GM, but this trade does not make much sense to me. Ok, I'm friggin biased. But even if I weren't, I don't see much upside here. Matt Carle is a great young defenseman, in the mold of a Chelios or even a Lidstrom- a strong skater with a bit of a scoring touch. Sheldon Souray is a known quantity- a 31-year-old blueliner who can score. But Adam Foote he ain't. Souray has been a minus player most of his career, and plays the point on the PP. He's good for 40 or 50 points a year. Foote is a plus player, who chips in a point every so often- his best season was 31 points. Foote is an older Scott Hannan that hits harder.

How is this an upgrade for the Sharks? Carle could easily reach 40 points this year, his first full year in the NHL. He plays the point on the power play, and can score. But he's only 22. With Ehrhoff, the Sharks have two young D that like to skate and shoot. In my opinion, the Sharks need an Adam Foote a heck of a lot more than a Sheldon Souray. We need steady D that calms the young kids down. We don't need a guy that will jump up in the play and get beat now and again. We have one of those already, and his name is Christian Ehrhoff.

Oh yeah, and Souray will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. If the trade goes down, we could actually be trading a better defenseman now that we can keep for another few years for a guy who could be gone by July. But on the plus side, Souray was married to Angelica Bridges.

Leadership, Panicking, and Gorges

Sometimes I think leadership in sports is just like chemistry- it matters only if you're losing. So the Sharks have gotten thoroughly embarrassed the last few games, getting shutout in both Nashville and Columbus, and only barely showing up in Dallas. It brings one to the question of chemistry and leadership, and if the Sharks have it. Marleau is said to be a silent leader, not one to chastise players in the locker room, and Joe is the same way- he leads by example, and not be speaking out. Grier and Brown are vets who have been there before, but no one on the Sharks today will stand up in the locker room and grab people by the scruff of the neck.

So does that mean the Sharks need to make a move? Sure, the last month has been kinda brutal, but do you trade someone like Bernier or Cheechoo to gear up for the playoffs? As I said in the last post, the Sharks are a young team. Maybe this year isn't their year to win the Cup. But who would have said last year was the Canes' year? You do the best you can, and hope to get hot in the postseason.

I do wonder if there is enough grit in the locker room, and enough experience. Take this quote from Joe Thornton in ESPN The Magazine about Josh Gorges:

Really sensitive young man, ready to give you a hug anytime you feel down. He's just concerned about his teammates. He also watches chick flicks. "The Notebook" is his favorite. And he's secure in that.

I can't say I'm reassured.

Forsberg

So many people are blogging about the Forsberg deal, and I figure I'd pile on. For those in the dark, Forsberg was traded from the Flyers to the Nashville Predators for Scott Upshall, Ryan Parent, a 1st round pick, and a 3rd round pick. Forsberg's contract is up at the end of the year, so it's possible (even likely) that he will only play about 3 months of hockey for the Preds. For which they gave up two players and two good draft picks.

If you put it like that, it sounds like the Preds got robbed. I knew the Flyers were asking a lot, but that's even more than I expected. However, think of it this way- the best team in the NHL just got better. They beat down the Sharks a few nights ago, and have the most points in the NHL. Now they got one of the best players in the game (when healthy) who is playing as good as he's played all season.

The Preds have to win now. Players over 30 - Zidlicky, Vokoun, Timmonen, Sullivan, Nichol, Mason, Kariya, Forsberg, and Arnott. That's more or less the core of the team. Why hold onto those draft picks and players when you can give yourself a good chance to win the Cup?

Sharks players over 30... Brown, Grier, and Nabokov. Not nearly the same situation as Nashville- two third line players and the backup goaltender.

Better

The Sharks returned to a modicum of respectability last night in winning 3-2. It was an all around better effort than Tuesday. Has anyone else noticed that Milan Michalek is jumping again? It seemed like he had made several power moves in the last few games, after being invisible for the better part of two months. If we can get that second line humming (hopefully Joe Pavelski will be back soon) we will be a lot more dangerous. Marleau playing with Joe makes the #1 more potent, but certainly answers the question as to which line the top D should play against. I think Pronger/Niedermayer were on the ice for every one of Patty's shifts.

Also, I should mention that even though the Sharks are 2-3 against this Ducks this year, they've been outscored 22-13. All the Sharks' victories have been close, and two of the Ducks' victories have been blowouts, amongst the worst the Sharks have had this season.

I must say, the circumstances of the next Ducks matchup don't exactly bode well for the Sharks. It's the first home game after a long road trip. The Sharks are 2-2 after road trips of 3 games and longer. And the Philly win shouldn't really count. I wish I had the data to easily crunch W/L records after long road trips, but I don't feel like poring over the schedules of all 30 teams by hand.

Brutal, Just Brutal

After a fairly good outing against the always-bad Blackhawks on Thursday, the Sharks go completely in the tank (believe me, no pun intended) against the Ducks last night. It was 2-1 after 1, but 6-1 after two periods. The Sharks showed a little pluck in the 3rd en route to a 7-4 loss.

The Ducks are better than the Sharks. It's just that simple. They have better D, better O, better goaltending. The Ducks first line matches up almost even with our first line, but their second line is head and shoulders better than ours. Penner, Getzlaf, and Perry made the Sharks' young D look foolish, and even the third line played well. Travis Moen went right around Marc-Edouard Vlasic on two occasions, scoring on the first, and barely missing on the second. Matt Carle might get sent back to the minors after last night's effort, including an outlet pass that was intercepted between the Sharks' circles, for God's sake. I think Rob Niedermayer thought it was Christmas.

After the Ducks put the game out of reach, they sat back a bit, and the Sharks surged. But even Philly could protect a 5 goal lead, and the Ducks managed. There were several tense moments after Cheech made it 6-4 late in the third, but after inexplicably keeping Toskala in the net on a Sharks power play, the Ducks scored an empty netter as soon as the PP expired. Generally you keep a goalie in net on your power play, because the other team won't get penalized for missing an empty net (no icing on the kill), but in this case, I think the Sharks should have gone for broke. Try and salvage some worth out of the game.

I think I'll be watching tonight's game while peeking through my fingers.

Suck it.

Man, if the last two games are any indication, the Sharks are in trouble. Dallas' top goal scorer has only 16 goals, and their top two points players are defensemen. If you can name their top scorer without looking it up, my hat is off to you. Possibly too easy hint: he has won the Selke.

Anyway, the moral of the past few games is, as the power play goes, so do the Sharks. Their recent stretch is 1-for-32. Doug thinks that Ron Wilson is skating on thin ice, but I think we need to have a bit of a wait-and-see attitude. The upcoming stretch is going to be huge, with a home-and-home against Anaheim, and road games against Nashville, Dallas, and Calgary all in February. If the Sharks continue to stink, maybe they'll pull a Robbie Ftorek. I'm obviously way too emotionally invested in this, but I like Ron Wilson. I think if he got canned and they bring in somebody like Pat Burns or Jacques Demers, it won't be for the better. On one hand, they would install a defensive-minded system, which might help shape up some of the poor defensive efforts (Jonathan Cheechoo -10, I'm looking in your direction), but I think it'll squash some offensive creativity. With young talents like Michalek, Bernier, and Clowe, I want to see them turn into Kovalchuks, not Daigles.

Watch the All-Star game! Ok, well, at least the skills competition

In their infinite wisdom, the NHL has decided to hold the All-Star game and skills competitions on a Tuesday and Wednesday, the time when everyone is thinking about hockey. I'm sure the skills competition will run neck-and-neck with American Idol in the ratings. And by 'neck-and-neck', I mean, 'the neck of a gnat vs the neck of a giraffe'.

And I like the All-Star game. I hate basketball, so the NBA All-Star game is out. Baseball's All-Star game is lame, because the commisioner attached some ginned-up consequences to it. And the Pro Bowl is after the season is over, so who cares about that? The NHL All-Star game is purposefully not serious. Sure, wimps like Scott Niedermayer won't show up because they're 'hurt' or whatever, but it's really not a big drain on one's constitution. You skate around with some buddies, no one hits anybody else, and you take a few shots.

Ok, so the game is kinda like a family Thanksgiving touch football game on ice, without all the contact. Which is why the skills competition is the better event. As a hockey player myself, I definitely appreciate the skills shown in a regular season game, but I like to see the nuts and bolts of stuff. How fast can you shoot? How are you at saving breakaways? Plus, you get to see all the players trash talk each other, which is pretty fun.

The word is that Cheech, Marleau, and Joe will be on the same line during the game itself, so I'll be tuning in for that. Maybe we'll see something that rivals Owen Nolan's called shot, my favorite All-Star moment ever.

Oilers 3, Sharks 2

What a shitty game. The Sharks gave up the first goal (AGAIN) last night, and quickly found themselves in an 0-3 hole less than 12 minutes into the game. Marcel Goc managed to score only seconds later to make it 3-1. I'm sure anybody that listened to the game or watched it on TV heard that this is the third straight start where Nabokov gave up 3 goals in the first period. The first time was Phoenix, when the Coyotes ended up winning 8-0 (too cold), the second was against the Wings, when the Sharks ended up winning 9-4 (too hot) and last night, when we lost 3-2 (just right).

It certainly seems that Nabokov has trouble making the early save. Two of the goals last night were on the power play, and those two probably weren't his fault. But spotting the other team 3 goals isn't exactly a winning formula. It's pretty much common sense that the team that scores the first goal has a much better chance of winning, but let's flip that aphorism on it's head, and look at it from the other direction.

In the last 15 games, the Sharks are 8-7. In 10 of those games, the Sharks did not score the first goal. They are 5-0 in the games they did score the first goal, and 3-7 in the ones they didn't, which sounds like a decent percentage. But it's not- this year, the league average winning percentage of teams that don't score first is .315.

Using nhl.com's handy-dandy stats tool, we can see that the Sharks are the best in the league when they score first - 18-3. If they don't score first they 10-12, which is good enough for 5th best. Believe it or not, Buffalo is 10-4-2 when they don't score first, a .625 winning percentage.

Clearly, the Sharks need to focus more on 1st-period play.

Ron Wilson on the rocks?

I saw this rumor on the SI.com "Truth and Rumors" page:

Many rumblings throughout the league, you should know, that the Sharks are becoming somewhat impatient with Ron Wilson's work behind the bench.

I like Ron Wilson, so my analysis is a bit skewed. But an 8-7 run isn't all that alarming, is it? What do I do? I go back to the stats. Let's start with last year, the Detroit Wings, President's trophy winners with 124 points. Their worst 15-game stretch was November 15 - December 15. They went 6-9. 2003-4? Red Wings again, with 109 points. Worst 15 game streak - 6-7-2.

If 8-7 turns into 8-12 or 10-20, then I'll be getting skeptical of Wilson myself. But let the man do his work. A bad stretch isn't a calamity- in most seasons, it's inevitable. Let's be glad it didn't happen at the end of March.

Detroit and Columbus.

I really should have posted something about the Detroit game after I went... at 0-3 I was threatening to walk out if it became 0-4. Then the Sharks scored one in the first to make it 1-3, and I figured I'd stick around. I'm glad I did. That's probably a game I will never see the likes of again. 9 straight goals, and 6 on the power play. Possibly the best offensive effort ever, only days after one of the worst defensive efforts ever.

And it was a nice win against Columbus on Saturday, but it looks like Josh Gorges got hurt. It appears I'll be wearing my Carle jersey again a bit sooner than I expected. If the Sharks skate 6 defensemen with Davison and Murray getting regular shifts, that would be a terrible mistake.

I'm Cursed by NHL Waiver Details

So I get a new Matt Carle jersey for Christmas, and what happens? He gets sent down to the friggin' minors. After the pasting by the Coyotes and the benching of Bell, Carle, and Bernier against Dallas, the latter two get sent down to Worchester.

All is not lost. Doug Wilson intimated that Carle may not be gone very long, but it did pique my interest in the business side of this transaction. If you are like me, and wonder about the minutia of NHL rules and regs, you might have asked yourself, "Why didn't they get claimed off of waivers?".

For those who don't know, generally when a player moves from a NHL team to the minors, they have to "clear waivers", which means the team notifies the league and all other teams that the player is available. Any team who wants that player can "claim him off of waivers" which means they assume his contract (and count half his salary against the salary cap). If more than one club wants the player, he goes to the team that has the worst record at the time. A player also has to clear waivers when moving from the minors to the NHL (called "re-entry" waivers), and there are more exceptions for this. Some players may not be exempt from "regular" waivers, but are "re-entry" waiver exempt. Jeez, how confusing is that?

Anyway, there is a "regular waiver exemption", which means that certain players young enough, and with little enough NHL experience can go straight to the minor league team without having to go through waivers (there are other exemptions as well, but I'm not going to mention them here- it's complicated enough as it is). The experience exemption is applicable for both Carle and Bernier. I'd bet at least half the teams in the NHL would claim these guys if they did have to go through waivers. If they weren't waiver-exempt, they wouldn't have been sent down.

The waiver exemption is 80 games for 21 year olds (Bernier) and 60 games for 22 year olds (Carle). Bernier has currently played 78 games in the NHL, and Carle 51. They barely made it under the wire for the exception, and it's extremely unlikely they'll get assigned again, due to their talents, and likelihood of being claimed.

For more interesting information about how waivers work in the new CBA, here's a great blog post I found. Very enlightening. You can even download the whole CBA (all 472 pages of it) here in PDF form. Works better than NyQuil.

Doldrums

After 3 consecutive losses, all to division opponents, and losing 5 of 7, the Sharks are officially in the doldrums. That is, before the win last night. The 8-0 loss to Phoenix on Thursday night is probably the worst, most embarrassing loss in franchise history. Two other times in their history the Sharks have lost 8-0 and worse. But both came in the first two season, when the Sharks were playing under Kevin Constantine, and had such superstars as Link Gaetz and Kelly Kisio. A team with four All-Stars, including a Hart and Richard winner they weren't.

So management kicked ass, took names, and benched three good players on Sunday vs. Dallas, choosing to suit up Scott Parker, Rob Davison, and Doug Murray, generally healthy scratches all.

And the Sharks looks great ... for 20 minutes. The first period they were flying around the rink, contesting every loose puck, forechecking hard, and driving to the net for rebounds. Frankly, they looked like the Ducks. They went up to a 4-1 lead, and it appeared the rout was on. And then it wasn't. Dallas managed to regain control of their zone, playing their ho-hum, slow-tempo, lock-the-neutral-zone, dump-it-in-and-let-Zubov-take-slap-shots style of play. In the Sharks' defense, they did play the night before, and may have shot their wad proving that they could be dynamic and dangerous in the first period. But it still makes periods 2 and 3 a little disturbing. If the Sharks can't put together a good 60 minute performance after the worst loss in franchise history, exactly when is it going to happen?

There is a bit of a respite, now that Pronger and Giguere are both hurt for the Ducks, arguably the two best players on Anaheim this season. Maybe the Ducks won't end up with 124 points, their current pace. To put that in perspective, the only team that finished with 124 points in the last 10 years is Detroit, last year. In a division which included the three worst teams in the Western Conference. By contrast, the Pacific division this year has the three of the top five teams in the conference. And the two worst. Even so, if the Ducks finish the season with 120 points or more, I would argue it would be the best regular season performance since 1995-6.

With only two really good opponents in all of January (Dallas on the 30th, Detroit next on the 4th), the Sharks need to make a run here. And we need to stop friggin' losing to the Kings and Yotes.

Nichol, Spacek, Collins, and Anthony

Everyone's heard about the NBA brawl that happened last weekend in New York, right? Players fighting, a cheap shot by Carmelo Anthony on Collins, and a resulting 15 game suspension. I watch PTI religiously for some reason, even though they rarely talk about hockey. They spent a good portion of Monday's show talking about the brawl. And inevitably, the racial component comes up. Mike Wilbon made the good point that there have been NBA fights since the 50's, and no one complained then about the violence in the sport, and the "thuggish" behavior. No argument here. He also mentioned that the fighting is worse in hockey and football, and no one complains about that. I have a bit of an issue with that, but read on.

So I wouldn't even be blogging about this if there wasn't a similar incident in the NHL just a few days ago. Scott Nichol of the Preds gets driven into the net by Joseph Spacek of the Sabres, the net comes off it's moorings and Nichol goes down. With Spacek's back to him, Nichol drops one glove, comes up behind him, and hits him in the jaw from behind. Spacek goes down like a sack of bricks, but has no long term injury. Nichol gets 9 games for the cheap shot.

This is patently outrageous. If you saw the Bertuzzi hit on Steve Moore a couple of years ago and the Nichol hit side by side, without knowing the aftermath of the hits, you would think the Nichol hit was much much worse. Bertuzzi had his glove on when he hit Moore, and the hit came partially to his helmet. Nichol hit Spacek flush in the face with his fist. The only reason Nichol got only 9 games is because Spacek wasn't hurt.

Maybe Spacek's drive of Nichol into the post was cheap. I doubt it. I've watched it a few times, and I think if Nichol wanted to bail out on the play, he could have easily avoided the post. Nichol was ahead of Spacek, and he wasn't being held, although his stick was tied up. Hockey is full of plays like this- two players struggling against each other, and someone gets rammed into something or someone.

The reason hockey isn't "worse" in the fighting department than the NBA is because there a set of written and unwritten rules about it. If Nichol turned Spacek around, dropped the gloves, and went after him, then it's a fair fight. No problem. The problem with the NBA is no one knows how to fight worth a damn, and there all this crap with players swinging wildly, refs not knowing what to do, people falling into the stands, etc. Carmelo's punch was about as cheap as Nichol's but he's a little punkass. He threw the shot at an unsuspecting Collins, then ran away. Classy. Nichol at least kept going while all the Sabres piled on.

But Nichol should have gotten 25 games. It actually worse when stuff like this happens in hockey, precisely because there's a semi-legal way for these conflicts to be resolved. If Spacek refuses to fight in that situation, then he gets hit at every possible opportunity for the rest of the game, and maybe beyond. He puts his head down in the neutral zone, and he'll wish he fought Nichol.

More OPPGATT and other madness

You may recall in a previous post I invented a new statistic, called Opponents' Points Per Game At The Time, or OPPGATT. This is an attempt to measure how good a team is when the target team (in this case, the Sharks) plays them. Specifically I was using it to try and evaluate the difficulty of Nabokov's starts vs. Toskala's, and I came to the conclusion that Nabokov has faced much tougher opposition. Purely by the luck of the draw, since they have played in alternate games every time this season.

Aren't there other factors we can use to evaluate how tough an opponent is? What I'm trying to avoid is specific game-type decisions and team status, stuff like injuries, scratches, and starting goalies. Then we get into the minutia of individual match ups, scheduling issues, and other stuff. What I'm looking for now is more macro-level type stuff.

Isn't home vs. away such an indicator? As of today, this season, teams are on average getting 1.17 points per game at home, and 1.02 points per game on the road. By my count, there are only 5 teams in the NHL (the Rangers, Penguins, Sabres, Senators, Bruins, and Lightning) that have better records on the road than at home. Some teams, like the Wild, are dominating at home (13-3-1) but are just godawful on the road (4-11-1).

The thesis is this, and not that controversial - road games are harder to win than home games. But the real question is, how much harder? One more useful number: the overall average of points awarded per game is 1.099. That means an away game is a 0.07 point handicap, and a home game is a 0.07 point advantage.

We can apply this modifier to my OPPGATT number directly, since they are also in the units of points/game. All of Nabby's toughest games were at home, so they weren't quite as tough using just OPPGATT. However, two of Toskala's toughest three games were away, so those games were a hair tougher than we thought.

Overall, it closes the gap a bit in terms of toughest games, but the outcome is the same, mostly because the discrepancy was so large to begin with.

I might try to use these number to evaluate the quality of starts in a future post. Shouldn't losses against bad teams hurt a goalie's (or team's) respectability (for lack of a better term) more than a loss to good opposition? More to come...

Exhilaration

I didn't get to start watching the Sharks game until midnight on Saturday. But I sure wasn't going to bed until I knew what happened. At the holiday party that evening, all my friends were giving me shit, pretending to announce the status after checking the score on their cell phones. I even had "DON'T TALK ABOUT THE SHARKS GAME' on my drink glass for the night.

I'm not going to do a whole recap, because I'm sure the Mercury News or ESPN has a better summary than what I will be able to produce. All I can say is that the Ducks are a fearsome team, especially on special teams. One thing I noticed in particular is they didn't hesitate to collapse on Joe when he was behind the net on the PP, but they would give him space on the half-boards. Haven't seen other teams take that tactic. Joe usually finds the open man when he gets challenged like that.

And my pessimistic side showed in the 3rd period, when the Ducks took the lead 3-2. I think there was about 8 minutes left in the game, and my heart sank. I said, "that's it", and was immediately admonished by Doug. He told me to take it back. All I could think about were the Sharks of years past, and maybe the NHL of years past, when a late go-ahead goal meant doom for the other team. But those years are past- the Sharks don't use it as an excuse to lose. They suck it up and go back to work. Cheech scored only seconds later, and I was forced to say "I take it back, and I have no reason to criticize." Then Joe put one in with 3 minutes left to give the Sharks their only lead, and the only one that matters.

Wow! At that moment, it was hard to remember it's just a regular season game in December. Beating the unquestioned class of the NHL is a big time statement. After that bad loss a month ago, I started to wonder if the Sharks would even have a chance. This game really showed for the first time in their history that the Sharks can beat anyone in the NHL, and even come from behind against a team with two Norris winners. As a long time Sharks fan, that feeling is new and exhilarating.

Trap Game

One of my favorite sports columnists, King Kaufman, uses a phrase that applies perfectly to the debacle last night. For instance, this is what he said about Washington playing the Saints this Sunday (the caps means he's picking Washington to win):

WASHINGTON (4-9) at New Orleans (9-4): Trap game! Trap! Trap! Trap! The Saints routed the Cowboys in a huge national TV game in Dallas Sunday night, they're in -- OK, near -- the Big Apple and the Giants circus next week. This week they get Washington, which can't get out of its own way. Trap! I'm picking it.

This is what happened to the Sharks last night. The Ducks are coming! The Ducks are coming! After a 5-0 drubbing on November 21st that even casual Sharks fans still have nightmares about, I can imagine that the players and coaches might have been a bit preoccupied. And with four games in six days, a letdown isn't unexpected. Especially when you are about to play a team with three friggin' losses in 34 games.

Does it suck that they lost to a bad team that didn't have their #1 D-man and their starting goaltender? Sure. But it's part of the learning experience for this young team. Actually the coaches might be secretly glad. If the Sharks were riding a 4 game winning streak into Saturday, there could be a lack of hunger against Anaheim. As coaches say, the hardest time to get players motivated is when they're winning. Ron Wilson can crack the whip today; the players will be listening.

WTF is going on here?

So I read this today, because I check ESPN's NHL page like Dr. House takes Vicodin. Then something in my wee little brain says, hey, I've heard this guy's name before vis-a-vis the Sharks. So I do a bit of searching, and find Traverse's player card on TSN, the Canadian sports channel.

Trades:

28-Sep-06:	Montreal Canadiens claimed Patrick Traverse off waivers from the San Jose Sharks.
10-Jul-06:	Signed as an unrestricted free agent by the San Jose Sharks.
09-Sep-04:	Signed as an unrestricted free agent by the Dallas Stars.
21-Feb-01:	Montreal Canadiens traded Eric Weinrich to the Boston Bruins for Patrick Traverse.
18-Nov-00:	Mighty Ducks of Anaheim traded Patrick Traverse and Andrei Nazarov to the Boston Bruins for Sami Pahlsson.
12-Jun-00:	Ottawa Senators traded Patrick Traverse to the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim for Joel Kwiatkowski.
20-Jun-92:	Drafted by the Ottawa Senators in the 3rd round (50th overall) in 1992.

First of all, how dumb are the Habs to trade Eric Weinrich, a solid NHL defenseman, for Traverse, who was 27 at the time with about a hundred NHL games played? But I digress.

So lemme get this straight. The Sharks sign Traverse in June as an unrestricted free agent. He gets no playing time. He gets sent down to the minors. In the process, he has to clear waivers. Montreal claims him off of waivers. But he doesn't play for Montreal either. So the Sharks trade one player they never use, Martin Biron, for a different player they never used, Patrick Traverse.

McLaren is nursing some injury or another, but we have Carle, Ehrhoff, Hannan, Vlasic, Gorges, Davison, and Murray. Do we really need a 9th defenseman? A 32-year-old who last had anything approaching a full NHL season in 2002-2003? Who has 279 career NHL games, and 65 career NHL points? This makes zero sense to me.

Toskala is better than Nabby this year, right?

Not so fast. BoC is a good hockey blog for us west-coasters, and Mike Chen, who writes about the Sharks, has a good post on the Nabby vs. Tosk debate. As the post shows, one can make the case that Nabby has faced much tougher opponents than Toskala. In terms of the "pushover" set, Nabby has faced the Islanders (who aren't really a pushover now at 15-11-3) and Phoenix once. Toskala has faced St. Louis twice, Columbus, Philly, and the Kings three times. Their stats are basically identical, and Nabby has one more shutout.

But read the comments of the post too- In the 'tough' starts, Tosk has fared better.

Here's my own analysis. You have to factor in the strength of the team's record when you face them. There may not be that many swings now, but to use one example, the Penguins were 7-3-0 when we faced them in November. Now they are 13-11-5. It might be interesting to use the opponent's record for the previous ten games, but I already did the analysis based on the "at the time" (ATT) record, so too bad. Maybe in a future post.

The ATT record Nabokov has faced so far this season is 132-91-17, where Toskala's is 90-108-29. But since the most recent games will be more heavily weighted (the most recent game against the Kings had their record 11-16-4, but the first time it was 5-9-3), we should use points per game instead. The average Opponents Points Per Game At the Time (OPPGAAT, hehe) is 1.13 for Nabokov, 0.908 for Toskala. That's a big difference. Extrapolate that points per game for a season, and Nabokov is facing a 92-point team vs Toskala facing a 74-point team.

In the comments thread, they talk about tough games, but using OPPGAAT, Nabby's 4 toughest games are the toughest of the season thus far. Those were the first Minnesota game (loss), the second Minnesota game (win), the Anaheim game (loss), and the most recent Nashville game (win). All those had an OPPGAAT of 1.39 and higher. Toskala's toughest game (using OPPGAAT) was a win against Detroit, with an OPPGAAT of 1.33.

So Nabby has a worse record against "tough" opponents, but Nabby's "toughest" opponents were "tougher" than Toskala's "toughest" opponents. By a lot. That may be the most time the root "tough" has ever been used in a sentence. Comparing Toskala's most difficult starts against Nabokov's is not a level playing field. Nabokov has faced tougher starts, and more of them.

Nabby has clearly had the better season, in my opinion.

Great Goal

You don't see this move that often, at least not since Denis Savard and Guy LaFleur:

New scheduling scheme

The NHL governors are meeting about the cap, but they are also talking about tweaking the schedule. Apparently they want to cut the number of interdivision games (currently 8) and increase the interconference games. Since the Sharks are in the Pacific division, it would seem reducing the number of interdivision games would benefit them, but I kind of like playing the Ducks 8 times, the games should be great. Certain scheduling tweaks can have two teams playing each other several times in a short period of time, but so what? That's what a series is all about, when the memories are fresh.

But what I don't like about the NHL schedule is that each team doesn't play an entire division each year. This year for the Sharks, it's the Atlantic. No Canadiens, Senators, Bruins, Maple Leafs, or Sabres this year. I like the symmetry of each team playing every other. Rumors are some teams are pissed about not getting butts in the seats to see Ovechkin or Crosby because some teams never play 'em, but I don't care about that. With 82 games in a season and 30 teams, every team should play every other at least once.

So here's my proposed schedule, which will never fly. Mostly because it reduces the number of games in a season, and as I may have mentioned before, I don't think there's a single time in history when a financially stable league reduced the number of games. Games mean revenue. More games mean more revenue. Anyway, I would reduce the number of interdivision games from 8 to 5. One benefit is less games, the other is that with an odd number of games, there will generally be a demonstrable 'series winner'. Then I would include one game against the 'missing' division. This would reduce the overall schedule by 7 games, from 82 to 75, a nice round number. So what about it, NHL? Maybe this will keep the playoff from going into June.

Yesterday was a holiday

Thanks for reminding me, Battle of California, one year ago yesterday the destiny of the Sharks franchise changed. It shall be dubbed Joe Thornton day. On November 30, 2005, the Sharks were on a 10-game losing streak. That night, before a game against the Stars (which they lost), it was revealed that Marco Sturm, Wayne Primeau, and Brad Stuart were late scratches for the game. Doug and I frantically dialed each other, madly contemplating what this meant. We were sure a trade was on. Given some horrible signings and deals the Sharks have made in the past (see Belfour, Ed), I was very worried. We speculated on Martin St. Louis, a player that one the MVP, but was having a bad year.

Neither of us ever dreamed it would be Joe Thornton. I still remember the excitement I felt when I realized we were getting one of the premier players in the game. I was worried about what I like to call "Ray Sheppard" disease, when a player comes to the Sharks and immediately sucks, only to regain past glory the instant they move to another team. Those worries were allayed within a month. Joe was on fire, and his nuclear explosion of points irradiated Jonathan Cheechoo to light up brighter than ever before. Ok, a tortured analogy. Joe went on to win the Hart and the Ross; Cheechoo won the Richard. And now the Sharks have the 3rd best record in the NHL.

Ahhh, good times. I hope to celebrate Joe Thornton day for many years to come.

Quarter Pole Report : State of the Sharks

I think I did this last season. Some friends of mine also like to put out a report on their respective teams, now that the season is a quarter over. Here goes.

Goaltending: 8
The Sharks have arguably the best goalie tandem in hockey with Toskala (10-2) and Nabokov (5-5). Just for the record, all of Nabokov's losses came against probable playoff teams (Minnesota, Rangers, Anaheim, Edmonton, and Detroit). I only gave an 8 because while having two netminders is a strength now, the longer we get into the season the bigger a liability it will become. Especially if their respective records have a similar disparity. Tosk will want the #1, and Nabby is making #1 money with a no-trade clause.

Defense: 7
Clearly the Sharks' biggest weakness. The 6th spot is still up in the air, with Gorges, Davison, and Murray all rotating in and out. Nobody has played well enough to lock it up. Hannen is a rock, Matt Carle is a stud, and McLaren hip-checks like a freight train. Trading one of the goaltenders for a solid defenseman (Jovo and Boynton have been rumored) could possible kill two birds with one stone. You know who I really miss? Tom Preissing.

Forwards: 8
Joe is being Joe, but the Marleau-Bernier-Michalek line is the best on the Sharks right now. Cheech is hurt, and Bell, once thought to be the answer to the "Nils Ekman issue", has been relegated to 3rd or 4th like duty. Michalek has been playing on the top line a bit, along with Mike Grier. The third and fourth lines have been doing their job well, with being pests, keeping the puck deep, and creating a decent chance now and again, but the top line needs to be more stable and scoring in order for the Sharks to get a 9 here.

Special Teams: 10
Clearly, the best special teams units the Sharks have ever had. The Sharks are currently #1 in the NHL in PP, #7 in PK. Curtis Brown and Mike Grier have shored up the PK, and putting Marleau and Carle at the points with Joe, Michalek and Cheech on the PP is a deadly combination of skating and shooting skill. Now that Joe is shooting more than last season, the opposing D have a Hobson's choice.

Coaching: 8
There wasn't much pressure up until now with the Ducks the clear favorites to take the Pacific in the pre-season polls, and the fact that they didn't lose a game until last week. But ESPN has San Jose at #1 in the power rankings, and they are no longer a secret. This will raise expectations, and the Sharks will become of of those teams that other teams get up for, like the Wings. As long as Toskala and Nabokov aren't sniping at each other in the press, the coaches are doing a good job.

First quarter Stud: Patrick Marleau - the captain should be on the All-Star team.
First quarter Dud: Mark Bell - I'm willing to be patient, since he got the DUI and everything. But he seems to skate and shoot like a Zamboni. I have no idea how he scored 25 goals like that... there's something missing here. He needs to find it- quick.
Biggest Surprise - Dallas. They lost Arnott and stripped Modano of the captaincy. I was sure that would sow seeds of discontent, but they are still only two points behind.
Biggest Disappointment - Ottawa. How they are under .500 with a lineup like that is putting on a clinic of underachieving.

Comments welcome.

Road Trip Grade: A-

Some might be surprised that I give the recent 4 game roadtrip such a high grade. They played 3 teams, all not very good, and only got 6 points out of 8 possible. By the Sharks' own admission, they played poorly against the Coyotes, the second game against the Kings (where they lost) and Colorado, for significant stretches. However, this feeling about the Sharks is almost entirely new to me. In past years, when the Sharks would play badly, they'd get shellacked. As this recent road trip shows, the Sharks are capable of sucking for a while, pulling up their (hockey) socks, and squeaking out a win.

This ability to win even in non-ideal circumstances is the mark of a good team. It's fantasy to think the Sharks will have their best game every night, or even 95% of the time. There will be plenty of games where they are discombobulated for a period, a power play, or an entire game. Poor teams give up 2 goals during a bad stretch of time, and flog themselves the rest of the game for doing it. Good teams have that selective amnesia - forget about the bad things that just happened - and go back work, knowing they can still win. In the case of the game against Phoenix, we played just crappy pretty much the entire time. But the Sharks managed to find a decent opportunity to score, made it happen, and kept the puck out of their own net. It'd be great to put a 5-0 beatdown on the Sabres, but that 2-1 squeaker has a satisfaction all its own.

Big Road Trip Coming

One of those sports clichés I really hate is that "good teams need to beat teams that are worse than they are". I guess there's a small amount of wisdom here, although I have trouble wrapping my mind around teams that only beat the teams that are better than they are. Does that mean those teams suck? Anyway, the Sharks have a four-game road trip coming up that applies to this "truism". They need to collect as many points as possible in playing the Kings twice, the Coyotes, and the Avalanche.

I thought the Avs were bad, but as of now, they are 7-5-2, good enough for second in the Northwest. They have 4 fewer points than the Sharks, but the Sharks are third in the Pacific, easily the toughest division in hockey. I still don't think the Avs will make the playoffs, and I think the Sharks should win that game, even in as hostile an environment as Denver is.

Tomorrow night San Jose faces off against the Wild, a team that made the Sharks look foolish at home on September 21st, beating them 4-1. I was there that night, and it was pretty embarrassing. Mark Parrish was forechecking everything, and the Wild played the defensive style that frustrates so many teams. I hope the Sharks can remember that drubbing to bring something a little extra tomorrow night. The Wild, unlike Colorado, have improved in the offseason, and should make the playoffs; they may even win the division.

Hockey All the Time

The season is 5 games old for the Sharks, and they are 4-1. The Blues game on opening night was a good one, with the Blues putting up more than a fight than I thought they would. Tkachuk still manages to be a pain in the ass with his physical play. Guerin and Weight, while declining the past few years, are wily veterans than made our young D look foolish at times.

The second game was against the Islanders, which the Sharks won 2-0. Nabby put in a great effort against a terrible team. The Isles have one legitimate top-6 forward, Alexei Yashin, and that's a bit of a stretch. Plus, they are the #3 hockey team in the tri-state area. I was watching a bit of the Islanders-Predators game on Center Ice last night, and to say Nassau Coliseum was half full would be charitable. Just a horrible turnout.

The third game was against the Flames, and the Sharks continued their dominance of Calgary, continuing their pre-season streak. Alex Tanguay scored their only goal late in the game on the power play. The Flames continue to have offensive troubles. After you get past Iginla and Tanguay, who does Calgary have that can put the puck in the net consistently? Amonte? 14 goals last year. Freisen, the old Sharks #39? 17 in 2005-2006. Their #2 scorer last year was Daymond Langkow, with 25 goals. Third? A rookie defensemen, Dion Phaneuf. Not good.

The game against the Oilers was the heartbreaker. Cheechoo had a hat trick, it was the third period, and the Sharks were up 4-2 in the Oilers' building. Then the floor fell out. Ryan Smyth had a hat trick in a little over 2 minutes to give the Oilers a 5-4 lead, and they went on to win 6-4. This is the only game I didn't watch (my TiVo forgot) and I'm glad. I have a feeling I would have broken something if I watched that. A brutal loss against the Sharks' opponent in the Western Conference Semis last year.

To the Sharks' credit, they rebounded in Vancouver the next night in a back and forth game, winning 6-4. Goals game from the most unlikely of players- Curtis Brown and Mike Grier scored on breakaways, and Rissmiller and Niemenen also scored. I must say, the Sedins with Naslund is a pretty fearsome line. Daniel had a pretty stunning goal on a cut to the middle. Ohlund and Willie Mitchell are holding the blue line down fairly well for the Canucks, but it's apparent they miss Ed Jovanovski. Even Luongo can't keep the puck out of the net when there are 2 or 3 guys in the crease.

So tonight, we play one of the three undefeated teams in the Dallas Stars. Their new big signing, Brendan Morrow, is leading their team with 4 goals. Their record might be a bit misleading- they've playing Colorado, LA twice, NJ, and the Ducks. Only the last two are actually decent. It'll be a great matchup.

Opening Night

Well, for the Sharks anyway. I buckled and bought the Center Ice package, and I got my first taste last night in watching the first period of the Ottawa-Toronto game. I plan on spending many more hours in front of the tube. Gotta keep my average household viewing time close to the national average.

We should beat St. Louis badly tonight- they don't have near the talent that we do. But they do have a number of scrappy veterans in Guerin, Tkachuk, and Weight. Those guys can hurt you at any time. I just don't think they're going to be able to keep up with Marleau, Michalek, and all of our other speedy forwards. I'm going to be paying special attention to the young D, namely Vlasic and Carle. I'll try to take a pic or two on my phone, and have a report tomorrow.

First game moblog!

Doug and I are here and the seats are great, as you can see...