3/4 pole

The season is 75% over, and the Sharks currently have 71 points, 5 out of a playoff spot. San Jose has won their last three games, and have three more home games to go before a 5 game road trip. Here's my current status report, done in the same style as my half-season report:

Offense: The Sharks have scored 197 goals, 9th in the West. Their top line still scores very consistently (Thornton is the NHL points leader right now, and Cheechoo had his 4th hat trick of the season on Monday night). The problem is, the second and third lines aren't scoring as much as I would hope. I predicted that Marleau would score more, and he has (29 goals, his career high). But the other young players that I thought would flourish against 2nd and 3rd line D have come up short. Michalek has only 13 goals. Goc has 15 points, and is -12. I think the top line has as much firepower as any other in the NHL, but if they hit a cold streak, I've seen zero evidence that other players will pick up the slack.

Defense: Still spotty. I expected the Sharks to be in the hunt for a veteran defenseman at the deadline, but no big moves happened. Hannan has gotten his +/- up to a -3, which is quite an accomplishment given where he was earlier in the year. Erhoff looks solid, Murray hits like a freight train, but the jury's out on Gorges and Davison. On Monday, the Sharks gave up a goal twice on the shift following a Sharks goal. Everyone knows that a successful shift after you score is critical to keep the momentum, and the Sharks couldn't keep it. On the positive side, the Sharks have looked horrible with 1-goal leads late in the game, and this time, they kept it without too much scrambling.

Special Teams: Both the PP and PK have improved since midseason- both are middle of the pack. I think I saw a stat a few weeks ago that said that the Sharks are over 20% on the PP since the Thornton trade. It's amazing watching the D clear out when Joe has the puck on the half boards- they know how dangerous his passing is. I which he would shoot a touch more from that spot though.

Goaltending: I was very surprised to see the Sharks re-sign both Toskala and Nabokov, and not trade either. That being said, Toskala has clearly been the better goalie since the halfway point. It's a good feeling knowing you have two quality goalies for the playoff run, but I wonder if there will be a controversy next season if Toskala continues to play well. Nabby had a great Olympics and will want to be the starter.

Looking Forward: The Sharks are picking up speed at the right time, but their margin for error is now very small. With LA, Vancouver, and Edmonton struggling, the Sharks must win every game against inferior opposition. The last two and a half weeks of the season are absolutely brutal- 10 games in 17 days in April. If I had to choose right now, I would say that the Sharks will not make the playoffs. But as a fan, I think of all the opportunities they have this month. if SJ can beat STL twice, and win the Chicago, Columbus, and Phoenix games, that will put us at 81 points with 10 games to go. If the Sharks can get 11 more points in April, I think they will make the playoffs. Only two of the games in April are against teams not in the top 8 (and one is against the Ducks, who are ahead of us), so that's actually a pretty tall order.

Trading Note: I'm glad Niko Dimitrakos is gone, and I don't really care that much about the Ville Niemonen pickup. While it would have been nice for Doug Wilson to get another D man, I'm glad he didn't trade away high draft picks or young players to get a 3-month rental. There's plenty of cap room, so I'm hoping for some free agent fireworks in the off season.

Stats

My friend Jeremy sent out an email recently where all NHL teams with PP% + PK% was over 100. His idea was that teams with PP+PK>100 will make the playoffs. Unfortunately, that list has a couple of weird teams in it. Minnesota is 106. Boston and Phoenix are over 99. And LA is third from the bottom, with 94.1. I tried to put the table in here, but I can't get blogger to put it in right. If I put in the html, it's looks like crap. I uploaded a gif of the table from Excel, but it shrinks it to nothing. If you want the data, email me.

This has all of those stats , plus a few more. The bottom line is how each column correlates to each of the states. 1 means a perfect correlation, 0 means no correlation. Wins has an almost perfect correlation to the number of points a teams has (duh!), and the number of games played has almost no correlation to the number of points (also duh). But lets look at the other stats. Wins and losses mean points, so seeing that those strongly correlate isn't really suprising or useful either. But let's look at PP%, PK%, and PP+PK. PP% correlates stronger than PK% to the number of points a team has, so that implies that it's better to have a good power play than a good kill. But PP+PK has a higher correlation still. Also, if you rank the teams by their PP and PK, and have a rank for the best PP+PK, that's an even better correlator than strictly PP%+PK% (but very close). Even though there are some outlier team in the PP+PK stat, it's still the best correlator to points.

The rightmost column is a little experiement of mine called Pythagorean Points. Rob Neyer and others have used the Pythagorean theorem for years to try and predict the number of wins and losses a baseball team has based on their run scored and runs allowed. This is a similar thing that I modified to try and apply it to hockey. Ties make it hard. I calculated the average number of points a teams scores in each game (1.11), then times that by two, then that by the pythangorean percentage. It's good to see which teams have been "lucky" this season. It stands to reason that if you score 200 goals and give up 200, your winning percentage should be about .500. If it's not, that means you've been somewhat lucky. Philly is a good example. Scored 213, given up 212, and are 35-20-10. Ottawa is somewhat unlucky. They've scored 252, only given up 152, and have 91 points. According to my results, on average a team with that GF/GA ration should have over 100 points already.

Anyway, something to think about and comment on.

New Look Sharks

5-2 win over the Oilers? Sharks pull away in the third period instead of collapse? Sharks played physical hockey and bullied the finesse style Oilers?

Sounds like a dream, right? No Sharks fans - the boys had a new look tonight and it paid off as we pulled back to six points out of the final playoff spot. The Sharks sent out a physical line up with the return of Scott Parker, rookie Steve Bernier and new Finnish bruiser Ville Nimenen. Doug Wilson managed to get a third round draft pick for Dimitrakos - which means he basically swapped Niko for Nimenen, a deal I'd make any day in my sleep. Niko hadn't scored a goal since December 2nd - yes, that's right, December 2nd!! Mark Smith was the roster spot casualty tonight - the only notable healthy scratch. He could return if McCauley and Goc continue to sputter - although they had some jump playing along side Mr. Parker.

It was nice to see Doug Wilson not push the panic button and over pay for some mediocre deadline rental like Recchi or Mark Parrish. The Oilers gave up too much for Samsanov and Roloson laid a major egg in his first start for Edmonton. They gave up a first round pick for a guy who was 6-17-1 this year? Looks like Edmonton might have screwed the pooch here...

Nashville in town on Saturday. Huge game for the Sharkies. We have a huge homestand and if the boys can take four out of five - we'll be right back in this thing. Can they play like they did tonight? I think so.

Olympic "Sports"

There are two Olympic sports I actually get excited about- biathalon and curling. I watched a 12.5km biathalon, and it was very exciting; I'm not kidding. The lead changed hands a bunch of times because if you miss shots you have to ski around a little penalty oval, which allows other people to catch you. If you choke and miss a bunch of shots, you're pretty screwed. This particular race had a veteran from Norway take the lead after the last shooting stage despite starting 14th. A much younger guy from France caught him in the last 100m sprint. Great stuff.

And I like curling because it's completely unlike any other Olympic sport- it has a very physical component, but is much more about strategy. Plus it has a whole world of jargon that is completely impenetrable to the average viewer. I spent the first hour or two just trying to figure out what the hell the announcers are saying.

I was reading Tom Benjamin's blog, and he presented a definition of what a sport really is. I think it's a good question, because when you think about it, most Olympic "sports" aren't really sports.

My big thing is that a sport has to have an objective result. That is, using scientific or other measurement, the winner is determined. Tom calls it an "unambiguous result". That means all the judging events are not sports. Figure skating, gymnastics, snowboarding, ballroom dancing- not sports. I'm not saying they aren't worthwhile pursuits, or that they don't take an incredible amount of skill and ability. I'm saying that when the results of the competition are determined by a judge, it ain't a sport any more- it's a pageant.

A sport also has to have generally physically fit or strong participants. Bass fishing is out. Bowling and pool are out. Poker is out. I think curling is on the edge here. I'm not saying all the participants have to necessarily be fit (see David Wells), but being in shape has to be considered a distinct advantage. You can be a fat guy with a strong right arm and still bowl 300.

Finally, the participants should break a sweat during the course of the activity, and not due to the elements or stress. Not sweating because it's cold is the exception, so swimming, cross country skiing (although they sweat) and curling are in (barely). I think this means that auto racing is out, and maybe even golf.

I'm sure this will piss people off, because most of the sports that fail the first criterion are popular with women, but it is what it is. That's why they should encourage sports where being nimble and light is a benefit, like rock climbing.

Olympics are Over

I didn't post a single thing about Olympic hockey until now. Why? There's no nice way to say it, so I'll just come right out:

I don't care.

Yep. Call me a unpatriotic anti-hockey moron, but it's the truth. I watched precisely one game- the U.S. vs Slovakia, in which we lost 2-1. I don't really see the point in NHL players playing in the Olympics. They arrive the day before the hockey games start, and leave the day after they're done. They don't walk in the opening or closing ceremonies. The players are pretty much guns for hire. And not even all the best players come- see Scott Niedermayer et al.

The idea that NHL players will bring more fans to the NHL didn't work in 2002, and I'd be even more surprised if it worked this year, considering the Olympics got a ratings beatdown by both American Idol and Desperate Housewives.

And because they are guns for hire, the teams don't have any flow, any continuity of play. Certain players seem to click because they play with each other in the NHL, or on past Olympic or World Cup teams, but for the most part the play is disjointed and difficult to watch. Even after watching one period of the U.S. game, I was frustrated. You see great players like Mike Modano skating around in their own little hockey system, a different system than all the other players'. After seeing that, I still thought Canada would win gold, but I could see how they could be beaten- simply by playing a team that's all on the same page. And sure enough, they got shut out twice and didn't medal.

Bring back the true amateur players, and coach 'em up for a few months. Maybe they won't be the best players in the world, but at least they'll have a vague idea as to what the other guys on the ice are trying to do. Sure, I won't have heard of many of them, but how many non hockey fans could name more than 2 Olympians this year?

OLYMPIC MEDAL ROUND

Switzerland? Finland? Slovakia? Has the world gone crazy? What happened to the Olympic powers, you may ask? Don't worry...they're going to show up starting tomorrow. Here's a preview of the first round match-ups.

FINLAND vs. USA
Hmmm...I'm not sure what to make of this one. The way Finland has played stingy defense combined with the USA's tendency to not score goals could spell doom for an upset - but I guarantee that Team Stars and Stripes is happier to see Finland than Canada in this spot. Color me crazy - but I smell an upset. USA 4 FINLAND 3

SWEDEN vs. SWITZERLAND
Three words to discribe the Swiss run to Gold. IT IS OVER. This game isn't even worth breaking down. After two ties to Germany and Italy - Switzerland blew its load early. SWEDEN 5 SWITZERLAND 1

CANADA vs. RUSSIA
Oh man. I had picked this to be the Gold Medal game and in a way, I still think it's true. Whoever wins this game could march all the way to gold. All signs point to Russia winning a wild one here - Nabby has been hot, Brodeur is banged up, Canada has been pushed around and the power play has been mortal. But....I think Team Canada will finally become interested and will not allow themselves to go home early. They looked bored and now with Gold on the line - they show up.
CANADA 5 RUSSIA 3

SLOVKIA vs. CZECH REPUBLIC
Great match-up. Slovakia is another team that surprised many in running the table in Round One. Will Vokoun get a chance to redeem himself or will the Czechs make a big mistake and play the rookie. I think they play the rookie....and they lose.
SLOVIA 6 CZECH REP 3

That would mean USA vs. SWEDEN and SLOVAKIA vs. CANADA in the Semis...

OLYMPIC PREVIEW

The 2006 Olympics are here and the men's hockey is off and running. Easy wins this morning for Finland, Sweden and Canada. Italy put up a decent fight and played with lots of passion in front of the home crowd - but Canada's power play is going to be unbeatable in 2006. Canada can come at you with four amazing lines filled with size, speed and skill. Now that Hasek is down for team Czech, there's only two teams that can cut them down. Team Sweden and, I'm saying this now....beware of Team Russia. This team has the ability to skate in and stun the big boys. Nabby is well rested and is more than capable of going on a major run. Here's how I see the medal round playing out.

ROUND 1 - Canada over Kazakhstan. USA over Czechs (in an upset). Sweden over Germany. Russia over Finland.

ROUND 2 - Canada over USA (close one 7-5 Canada). Russia over Sweden.

GOLD MEDAL GAME - Canada vs. Russa. Canada wins 6-5.
Sweden takes the bronze.

You heard it here...from someone who has cash on Team Canada. They are just too good and too deep to lose.

Great Win

The Sharks had a strong first and blockbuster second periods tonight in beating Dallas 6-3. Cheechoo had two goals, and even more promising, the power play looked very good. They had a 5-3 power play that immediately preceded Joe Thornton's goal- he scored just a second or two after the 2 man advantage expired. And in other power plays, the puck movement was very good, shots came from the point through screens, and they cycled well.

The only down moments came in the 3rd when Dallas scored two goals in quick succession to make it 5-3 after the Sharks led 5-1 after two. I could sense the crowd reeling at the Tank, hoping the Sharks wouldn't find a way to lose or tie, the same way they've done too many times this season. But Toskala had a couple of strong saves right after the third Dallas goal, the defense started clamping down, and the offense was actually trying to manufacture chances, as opposed to waiting in the neutral zone, and dumping it in every time they got possession.

The Sharks have to be shopping Toskala at this point. He's played the last two games, despite Nabokov being re-signed to a 5 year deal. There's no doubt in my mind that management is playing Toskala so other teams can see what he can do. I think trading Toskala is a good idea at point, provided two things- 1) that we get real long term value in return and 2) he goes to a team in the East. The Kiprosoff deal is still hurting the Sharks, witness the Sharks loss to them on Monday when he made 28 saves.

1-0 picking underdogs

First, a photo I took at last nights game. I tried to post it from my Treo by attaching it to the email I sent in, but that didn't work. Oh well.

Second, my Columbus pick was so good (they won 7-4 last night) that I thought I might retire from picking more games, but it's too much fun. I think I will try to make it a little tougher on myself and pick mostly even games or underdogs.

Doug or I will post something on the breaking NHL gambling scandal soon... I need to do some more reading about it, and new information seems to come out every day.

That's the final

Despite the Sharks playing prevent defense the entire third period, they manage to win 2-1. The first 5 minutes were bad, and the next 15 were worse. Niko Dimitrakos managed to take a dumb penalty with about 5 minutes left. Once we killed the penalty (barely) Niko comes out of the box and prompty missed a lead pass that was right on his tape. We need to send him to Cleveland. I hope the Sharks can retool before Dallas comes to town o Friday.

2-1 After 2

Kyle Calder had a pretty nice goal from a bad angle to put Chicago back within 1. The Sharks still dictated play- they've outshot the Hawks 30 to 16. It's unnerving that SJ is only up by one considering the general beatdown.

End of the First

End of the first, the Sharks lead 2-0. Marleau had a beautiful goal. The uck squirted out to one side while there was a scrum in front. Marleau turned around, and literally with one foot on the goal line, roofed it. Only a few inches of space, and he hit it.

The other goal was a little Joe Thornton tip from a Preissing point shot. The Sharks were clearly much faster than the Hawks the whole period, it's easy to see why they suck so much.

I'm mobile!

I'm going to mobile blog from the Sharks game. Updates to follow...

My First Pick

I'm not going to make as many picks as Doug in this space, I'm more into stats and other analysis. But I'm going to show Doug up here today, and actually pick an underdog. It's all well and good to pick Dallas, Ottawa, and Carolina, but today I'm picking:

Columbus (+110)

Yeah! Read it and weep. The Kings are on a long road trip, lost to Minnesota last night, a bruising team. They had to travel late to Ohio, where the Jackets have had an extra day to prepare. Rick Nash is on an absolute tear right now, and L.A. is plagued with injuries. The Kings are 3-0 in their last three meetings, but at least if I'm wrong, I went out like a man.

Blackhawks are coming to town!!!

GAME PREVIEW
The Blackhawks stole a win in Phoenix last night 3-1. I hope Mrs. Gretzky didn't play the over! Bad news for the Sharks tonight is they like to play "win one lose win" with the boys from Chicago. This is bad news because the Sharks won the last one....so they are due to lose this one.

Great news that Cheechoo got locked into a 5 year contract extension last night. He has developed into one of the best finishers in the game and would have commanded big cash on the open market. Signing Nabokov is the more puzzling move - he has been wildly inconsistent and in and out of Ron Wilson's doghouse. I thought Nabby was more tradebait than cornerstone in Doug Wilson's eyes. I'm pleased with the signing and I hope it will allow Nabby to relax. Expect Doug Wilson to move Toskala to an Eastern Conference team in need of goaltending. I would be shocked if he moved Vesa to Vancouver, Edmonton or Colorado - he won't pull another deal that could burn him in the end, i.e. Kipper.

THE GAMBLER 5-0-0 $500.00
Ottawa at NY Rangers
Man..I'm a house of fire. This one was an easy pick for me, it jumped right off the board. Ottawa owns the Rangers and shows up in the Garden for a big bounce back win. I still think the Rangers are pretenders and prime for a collapse near the end of the season. The walls could start to crumble tonight.

PLAY: Ottawa -165

Sharks are done

As Doug mentioned, the Sharks lost again last night to Calgary in San Jose. The Sharks currently have 56 points, 8 out of the last playoff spot. The number 8 team, Colorado, has 64 points in 55 games, earning 1.163 points per game. At that pace, they'll have 95.418 points in 82 games, so let's say 95 points for the sake of argument.

95 points for the number 8 seed is a lot. Last year (meaning 2003-2004), the #8 seed in the west, Nashville, had 91 points. The year before that Edmonton had 92 points and squeaked in. But as I've mentioned in previous posts, the West has the two toughest divisions in hockey this year, and the 3 worst teams as well, so the disparity will be large. But 95 still sounds like a lot, so let's drop that down 2 to 93.

The Sharks have 29 games left, and would need to earn 37 points in those 29 games to hit 93 points. That's 18-11, or better than .620 hockey. That includes 4 games vs. Dallas, and 2 each against Detroit and Vancouver. Assuming they go .500 against the three best teams in the West - a pretty charitable assumption considering they are under .500 against their own division - that means they need to play almost .700 hockey against Phoenix (0-4 this season), Anaheim (3-3), and L.A (4-1), among all the other West teams.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying the Sharks are done. How are they going to pick it up, when all the other West teams are picking it up too, jockeying for position in the playoffs?

But I still bleed teal, so I'll be watching the games. I'm going this week against Chicago and Dallas.

Another disappointment

Too little too late for the Sharks last night as they fell at home to the Flames. The game wasn't as close as the 4-3 final score indicated. I don't even want to talk about it....let's move on to something better like...

THE GAMBLER 4-0-0 $400.00
Say what you want, but picking winners is picking winners. Too bad I don't have real money on these babies.

Edmonton at Colorado

What a great season series, with the Avs leading 3-2. The Avs love to open it up and the Oilers are like the "Diet Avalance" following the same mold of wide open skating, scoring and little defense and suspect goaltending. The Oilers are coming off a late night shootout win vs. the Ducks. Having to fly to Colorado and get it up for the Avs will be too much to ask.

PLAY: COLORADO -165

Interdivision games for the Sharks- not good

I mentioned recently that the Sharks have a ton of division games in late January and February, let's see how the Sharks are doing:

• 1/21 at Kings : Win (OT) 4-3
• 1/24 vs. Kings : Win 4-1
• 1/26 vs Ducks : Loss 0-2
• 1/28 at Coyotes : Loss 2-6
• 1/30 at Stars : Loss (OT) 2-3
• 2/1 at Ducks : Win 6-4
• 2/4 vs Ducks : Loss 0-2

So that's 7 points in 7 games, basically .500 hockey. We have two more division games before the Olympic break, versus Dallas and Phoenix, and even if we win both, we'll only have 11 points in 9 division games. Given that the entire Pacific division is 4 games over .500 or better, playing roughly even hockey is not the way to gain ground for a playoff run. The Kings are seriously fading, but the Ducks and Stars are both playing well right now, and Phoenix has been suprisingly resilient this season. The Sharks have clearly frittered away a golden opportunity to make up ground in the West.

Calgary comes to town

GAME PREVIEW
The Sharks face off in another important Western Conference game against the hated Calgary Flames, who crushed our Stanley Cup hopes and dreams in 2004. This Flames team is a little different, with some new faces that has messed with the chemistry that made them such a dangerous playoff team. There are some good things going for the Sharks. The Flames are riding a three game losing streak and have lost eight straight regular season games at the Tank. Let's hope the boys can dish out some punishment tonight.

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Nashville at Dallas
I'm on a roll baby. Let's not stop here. Speaking of rolls...The Dallas Stars were on a major one before the St. Louis Blues and their band of no names pulled their pants down. Dallas was clearly thinking about Nashville coming to town and let the aggressive young Blues team out work them. Dallas will pick up the pieces tonight at home vs. the Preds. Nashville hasn't won in Dallas since March 2003....and that won't change tonight.

PLAY: DALLAS STARS -165

Quick Pick for Sunday

THE GAMBLER 2-0-0
Thank you very much, I'm on a roll. Follow me on this next pick.

Carolina at Boston
Take the Hurricanes today to bounce back after a no win situation in New Jersey. This team has been waiting in Boston overnight after the Bruins had to fly home after losing in Montreal - so they essentially become the home team. Carolina is too good to blow this chance to take a game from Beantown.

PLAY: CAROLINA -160