Tuesday, February 07, 2006

Sharks are done

As Doug mentioned, the Sharks lost again last night to Calgary in San Jose. The Sharks currently have 56 points, 8 out of the last playoff spot. The number 8 team, Colorado, has 64 points in 55 games, earning 1.163 points per game. At that pace, they'll have 95.418 points in 82 games, so let's say 95 points for the sake of argument.

95 points for the number 8 seed is a lot. Last year (meaning 2003-2004), the #8 seed in the west, Nashville, had 91 points. The year before that Edmonton had 92 points and squeaked in. But as I've mentioned in previous posts, the West has the two toughest divisions in hockey this year, and the 3 worst teams as well, so the disparity will be large. But 95 still sounds like a lot, so let's drop that down 2 to 93.

The Sharks have 29 games left, and would need to earn 37 points in those 29 games to hit 93 points. That's 18-11, or better than .620 hockey. That includes 4 games vs. Dallas, and 2 each against Detroit and Vancouver. Assuming they go .500 against the three best teams in the West - a pretty charitable assumption considering they are under .500 against their own division - that means they need to play almost .700 hockey against Phoenix (0-4 this season), Anaheim (3-3), and L.A (4-1), among all the other West teams.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying the Sharks are done. How are they going to pick it up, when all the other West teams are picking it up too, jockeying for position in the playoffs?

But I still bleed teal, so I'll be watching the games. I'm going this week against Chicago and Dallas.

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