Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Conference Finals Predictions

So after the tough loss last night, I need to put on my objective hat and try to gauge the conference finals. Not to toot my own horn, but I'm kicking ass in terms of my series predictions- 7-1 in the first round, 3-1 in the second, for 10-2 overall. This time I only picked one series- Ottawa vs. New Jersey, completely correct.

Sabres vs. Sens- I'm surprised at how many people are predicting the Senators to take this series. The Sabres were the best regular season team. Before you quote the stat, let me quote it for you - only one President's Trophy winner in the past 14 years have won the cup (Rangers in 1994). Notice I did not say (yet) I thought the Sabres would win the Cup. Ottawa has advantages in PP and defense, I think the Sabres are better at all other aspects of the game. Although it's interesting to talk about the back-to-back brawls that occurred during this regular season, there's too much on the line to get into nasty stuff and risk suspensions. Sabres in 6.

Ducks vs. Wings- I'm 0-2 at picking against the Wings this post season, and I'm going to ride the wave to 0-3. The Ducks have a better blueline, a second line that can actually score (unlike the Sharks), and statistically better goaltending. Couple that with bigger, nastier players, and a hurting Wing defensive corps, and I think this series won't be as close as people think it will be. If I'm going to be wrong, I'm going to be very wrong. It's better to burn out than to fade away! Ducks in 5.

Unlike Grier, I honestly can't pick who to root for in the next series. I hate the Wings because, they're, well, the Wings. It's kind of like rooting for the IRS. I hate the Ducks because they are in our division and because they owned us in the regular season. But I'd rather see the team that beat us go far because that makes the Sharks look better. But I have good friends down south that are diehard Ducks fans. I'll watch the games because it'll be a good series, and root against Teemu, but for Lidstrom, because that guy is too fucking good. But then I'll root against Draper, because he's a punk, and root for Scott Niedermayer, because he was great with the Devils. I can go on like this for awhile. I give up.

Update:The stat I quoted above about President's Trophy winners not winning the Cup often is complete and total crap. Dunno where that came from in my brain, or why I didn't check it beforehand. Thanks frank.

6 comments:

Frank said...

C'mon, Mike. There have been *three* President's Trophy winners to hoist the Cup since the Rangers. And as common as it is to throw around this "President's Trophy doesn't mean anything in the playoffs" talk, very few people bother to point out that the team finishing first over all wins the Cup more often than any other finishing position.

Mike said...

Serves me right for not checking stats before writing the post. Man, where the hell did I come up with that 'fact'? Of course you are right. Thanks for the correction.

It doesn't change the fact that I think the Sabres will win the series.

Can'tStoptheGrier said...

I have to disagree with Mike. I'm taking the Senators in six and you have to take the Wings. Beating the Sharks is the magic formula. You oust the Sharks, you go to the Cup. Ask the Avs, Flames and Oilers.

ColBerdan said...

Same logic applies to ousting the Wings. Just ask the Ducks (2003), Flames (2004), and Oilers (2006), all of whom went on to lose in game 7 of the Cup Finals.

Ian said...

Read these links! There's some great analysis on the 2006 Sharks.

(PS - Don't be so cocky.)

Can'tStoptheGrier said...

Oh Ian.....I can do whatever I want. This is my blog.

Besides, I think you were entertained. You obviously bothered to read the post more than once - which is the whole point, right?

See you next year!